{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1a07593c-6fd1-430e-90b7-373d69adf1b3", "symbol": "FTQI", "name": "FIRST TRUST NASDAQ BUYWRITE INCOME ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 78.475, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 72.574, "architecture_energy": 50.758, "architecture_maturity": 71.249, "architecture_confidence": 61.593, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.36, "rotation_up": 52.29, "upward_expansion": 80.62, "deceleration": 68.09, "rotation_down": 26.36, "downward_expansion": 7.29 }, "activity_lines": [ 21.923216, 21.838437, 21.60714, 21.228695 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 22.22, "trend_reference": 20.769162, "distance_from_trend": 0.069855, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 17.456638, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.272868, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.238608, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.111979, "excess_performance": -0.075474, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.069855, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.035154, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.272868, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.016611, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.032386, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.045343, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.111979, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.808115, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 934916, "relative_activity": 0.594934, "balance": 0.808115, "dry_up": 1.191149, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.023399, "annualized_volatility": 0.100737, "from_high_reference": -0.002245, "from_low_reference": 0.236149 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 20.769162, "fair_value_reference": 17.456638, "structural_low": 18.874821, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 40, "median_return": 0.010442, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.001884, "regime_survival": 0.85, "best_return": 0.050295, "worst_return": -0.066652, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.028662, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.019262, "regime_survival": 0.785714, "best_return": 0.086069, "worst_return": -0.072305, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.071279, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.016774, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.112705, "worst_return": -0.17315, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"direction": 79.974494, "energy": 67.679249, "activity_lines": [ 21.787487, 21.674392, 21.256638, 20.90048 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 21.850309, "volume": 1088932, "typical_volume": 1392119.95, "trend": 20.572983, "fair_value": 17.305442, "relative_strength": -1.182897, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.251936, "energy": 56.261974, "activity_lines": [ 21.827172, 21.727489, 21.356904, 20.987207 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 21.75, "volume": 4133416, "typical_volume": 1552448.15, "trend": 20.631186, "fair_value": 17.353833, "relative_strength": -0.04256, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.534603, "energy": 54.32048, "activity_lines": [ 21.825453, 21.748893, 21.437975, 21.063143 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 21.67, "volume": 1330121, "typical_volume": 1581675.2, "trend": 20.692753, "fair_value": 17.403312, "relative_strength": -0.904779, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.982383, "energy": 47.853962, "activity_lines": [ 21.791178, 21.745905, 21.501383, 21.130163 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 22.22, "volume": 934916, "typical_volume": 1571463.0, "trend": 20.769162, "fair_value": 17.456638, "relative_strength": -3.238608, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.574395, "energy": 50.757888, "activity_lines": [ 21.923216, 21.838437, 21.60714, 21.228695 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }