{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1a0778e8-82d8-4e1f-b061-b3bb501d28da", "symbol": "PRFO", "name": "Profoto Holding AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -54.595, "architecture_energy": 52.944, "architecture_maturity": 29.975, "architecture_confidence": 91.263, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.84, "rotation_up": 14.09, "upward_expansion": 12.71, "deceleration": 36.63, "rotation_down": 63.75, "downward_expansion": 83.71 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.836, 8.034182, 8.314857, 8.44886 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 7.92, "trend_reference": 8.797, "distance_from_trend": -0.099693, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 34.90155, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.773076, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -34.176199, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.175, "excess_performance": -0.236494, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.099693, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.068016, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.773076, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004805, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.341762, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.068271, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.175, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.15019, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 27846, "relative_activity": 0.223461, "balance": 0.15019, "dry_up": 0.381756, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.120532, "annualized_volatility": 0.531433, "from_high_reference": -0.641552, "from_low_reference": 0.128205 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.797, "fair_value_reference": 34.90155, "structural_low": 7.02, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.049228, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.416667, "median_excess_return": -0.064362, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.102639, "worst_return": -0.159091, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.030076, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.073748, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.005277, "worst_return": -0.10883, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.081964, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.128329, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.059801, "worst_return": -0.104127, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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8.603524, 8.785677 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 7.82, "volume": 124507, "typical_volume": 128507.65, "trend": 9.080333, "fair_value": 36.085345, "relative_strength": -36.993578, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.262691, "energy": 31.759793, "activity_lines": [ 8.338667, 8.489455, 8.528667, 8.699032 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.62, "volume": 25139, "typical_volume": 127103.65, "trend": 9.001, "fair_value": 35.695266, "relative_strength": -37.931246, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.961381, "energy": 33.032497, "activity_lines": [ 8.104, 8.285091, 8.44181, 8.604817 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.56, "volume": 12794, "typical_volume": 124772.25, "trend": 8.896333, "fair_value": 35.299411, "relative_strength": -37.566864, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.251995, "energy": 34.395459, "activity_lines": [ 7.890667, 8.113091, 8.357714, 8.511849 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.92, "volume": 27846, "typical_volume": 124612.3, "trend": 8.797, "fair_value": 34.90155, "relative_strength": -34.176199, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.594632, "energy": 52.943979, "activity_lines": [ 7.836, 8.034182, 8.314857, 8.44886 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }