{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1a077edf-30f4-4aa2-a19b-bfb7994ba93d", "symbol": "ROKT", "name": "STATE STREET SPDR S&P KENSHO FINAL FRONTIERS ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 22.376, "architecture_energy": 14.302, "architecture_maturity": 43.739, "architecture_confidence": 92.585, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.76, "rotation_up": 25.75, "upward_expansion": 42.07, "deceleration": 82.92, "rotation_down": 33.81, "downward_expansion": 33.74 }, "activity_lines": [ 113.454873, 113.899487, 115.628245, 113.506426 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 120.005, "trend_reference": 110.250196, "distance_from_trend": 0.088479, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 65.100757, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.843373, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 11.356241, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.202996, "excess_performance": 0.077372, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.088479, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.109926, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.843373, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.085784, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.113562, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.108497, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.202996, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.134218, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 113038, "relative_activity": 0.524121, "balance": 1.134218, "dry_up": 0.777231, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.079963, "annualized_volatility": 0.333012, "from_high_reference": -0.127697, "from_low_reference": 0.768333 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 110.250196, "fair_value_reference": 65.100757, "structural_low": 94.59, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.035964, "positive_rate": 0.7, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": -0.003088, "regime_survival": 0.3, "best_return": 0.105157, "worst_return": -0.071705, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.074572, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.012412, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.338555, "worst_return": 0.007179, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.197554, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.109079, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.736266, "worst_return": -0.000746, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.046992, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.015184, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.063896, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.127737, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.118284, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.075351, 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"up", "direction": 35.86981, "energy": 20.404693, "activity_lines": [ 117.015545, 119.221643, 115.864367, 112.068147 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 112.7681, "volume": 125967, "typical_volume": 201136.75, "trend": 107.096089, "fair_value": 63.321085, "relative_strength": 9.62304, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.948788, "energy": 20.543422, "activity_lines": [ 115.427491, 118.104272, 115.935943, 112.497566 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 107.27, "volume": 141429, "typical_volume": 202674.95, "trend": 107.848159, "fair_value": 63.72985, "relative_strength": 5.404121, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 8.524449, "energy": 15.399442, "activity_lines": [ 112.414224, 115.950258, 115.438171, 112.508786 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 111.27, "volume": 80170, "typical_volume": 201769.0, "trend": 108.705283, "fair_value": 64.168447, "relative_strength": 9.323264, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 9.007902, "energy": 14.391567, "activity_lines": [ 111.580287, 114.636293, 115.303994, 112.72955 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 110.17, "volume": 335869, "typical_volume": 213667.0, "trend": 109.428134, "fair_value": 64.6023, "relative_strength": 6.494692, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 3.757868, "energy": 15.400547, "activity_lines": [ 110.79708, 113.235911, 115.02184, 112.824048 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 120.005, "volume": 113038, "typical_volume": 215671.4, "trend": 110.250196, "fair_value": 65.100757, "relative_strength": 11.356241, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 22.376343, "energy": 14.302477, "activity_lines": [ 113.454873, 113.899487, 115.628245, 113.506426 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }