{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1a098376-6dda-43a0-be92-b92c7fe02050", "symbol": "002646", "name": "Qinghai Huzhu TianYouDe Highland Barley Spirit Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -48.308, "architecture_energy": 40.251, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 62.422, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.0, "rotation_up": 26.77, "upward_expansion": 18.14, "deceleration": 66.99, "rotation_down": 41.3, "downward_expansion": 68.14 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.683333, 6.63863, 6.981946, 7.318823 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 6.8, "trend_reference": 7.789813, "distance_from_trend": -0.127065, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10.201878, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.333456, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -23.865595, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.26087, "excess_performance": -0.268269, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.127065, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.099548, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.333456, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.087507, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.238656, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.050236, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.26087, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.625827, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 27898592, "relative_activity": 1.260172, "balance": 0.625827, "dry_up": 1.474978, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.071371, "annualized_volatility": 0.24385, "from_high_reference": -0.359095, "from_low_reference": 0.103896 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.789813, "fair_value_reference": 10.201878, "structural_low": 6.16, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 33, "median_return": 0.001111, "positive_rate": 0.515152, "directional_follow_through": 0.484848, "median_excess_return": -0.013514, "regime_survival": 0.787879, "best_return": 0.183809, "worst_return": -0.128659, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.023845, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.008572, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.099588, "worst_return": -0.218028, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.04111, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.179715, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.05249, "worst_return": -0.255356, "sufficient": true }, { 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"balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.021786, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.035294, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.019649, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.02043, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.038089, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.025465, 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"volume": 30539319, "typical_volume": 21050583.3, "trend": 7.91748, "fair_value": 10.287166, "relative_strength": -28.332816, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.762573, "energy": 67.044122, "activity_lines": [ 6.471678, 6.626972, 7.089369, 7.452949 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.89, "volume": 40869205, "typical_volume": 21990150.55, "trend": 7.85148, "fair_value": 10.245062, "relative_strength": -19.762356, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.145132, "energy": 52.984329, "activity_lines": [ 6.610333, 6.635074, 7.036015, 7.38666 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.8, "volume": 27898592, "typical_volume": 22138721.6, "trend": 7.789813, "fair_value": 10.201878, "relative_strength": -23.865595, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.307726, "energy": 40.251152, "activity_lines": [ 6.683333, 6.63863, 6.981946, 7.318823 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }