{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1a0ecdc4-2c18-404c-8b34-e9630bda9b6e", "symbol": "XFVT", "name": "Xtrackers Vietnam Swap UCITS ETF 1C", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -19.707, "architecture_energy": 33.739, "architecture_maturity": 2.825, "architecture_confidence": 67.049, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.65, "rotation_up": 16.87, "upward_expansion": 19.32, "deceleration": 57.72, "rotation_down": 63.27, "downward_expansion": 41.99 }, "activity_lines": [ 34.251333, 34.967727, 35.442071, 35.167925 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 34.599998, "trend_reference": 34.9605, "distance_from_trend": -0.010312, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 27.902276, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.240042, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.259151, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.048008, "excess_performance": -0.122883, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.010312, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.015595, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.240042, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.135894, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.132592, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.167901, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.048008, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.788655, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9755, "relative_activity": 0.866287, "balance": 0.788655, "dry_up": 1.042808, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.039973, "annualized_volatility": 0.228254, "from_high_reference": -0.082106, "from_low_reference": 0.164003 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 34.9605, "fair_value_reference": 27.902276, "structural_low": 29.725, "invalidation": "A 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"activity_lines": [ 36.460667, 36.308546, 35.817857, 35.421495 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 34.75, "volume": 9395, "typical_volume": 13976.8, "trend": 35.148, "fair_value": 27.800096, "relative_strength": -10.333377, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 23.784037, "energy": 19.645962, "activity_lines": [ 35.980001, 36.005, 35.782572, 35.397839 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 33.375, "volume": 14265, "typical_volume": 13626.5, "trend": 35.077333, "fair_value": 27.835353, "relative_strength": -13.593158, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -30.356157, "energy": 23.833654, "activity_lines": [ 35.041334, 35.498728, 35.62, 35.283452 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 33.700001, "volume": 13556, "typical_volume": 12411.45, "trend": 35.013333, "fair_value": 27.86766, "relative_strength": -13.22678, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -27.734796, "energy": 33.761039, "activity_lines": [ 34.378334, 35.125091, 35.492476, 35.194592 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 34.599998, "volume": 9755, "typical_volume": 11260.7, "trend": 34.9605, "fair_value": 27.902276, "relative_strength": -13.259151, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -19.707092, "energy": 33.739228, "activity_lines": [ 34.251333, 34.967727, 35.442071, 35.167925 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }