{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1a10c33d-b233-4127-8562-fc7331534bd9", "symbol": "LUNB", "name": "H. Lundbeck A/S", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 54.876, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 24.5, "architecture_energy": 16.921, "architecture_maturity": 59.03, "architecture_confidence": 71.74, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.8, "rotation_up": 26.66, "upward_expansion": 52.14, "deceleration": 81.54, "rotation_down": 25.27, "downward_expansion": 25.47 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.603333, 5.647182, 5.675357, 5.491835 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 5.555, "trend_reference": 5.191681, "distance_from_trend": 0.069981, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 3.758997, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.477788, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.479666, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.430984, "excess_performance": 0.256737, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.069981, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.076949, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.477788, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.172583, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.074797, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.179043, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.430984, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.05827, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6, "relative_activity": 0.003575, "balance": 0.05827, "dry_up": 0.269916, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.040296, "annualized_volatility": 0.40043, "from_high_reference": -0.074167, "from_low_reference": 0.541319 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.191681, "fair_value_reference": 3.758997, "structural_low": 3.839371, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.0242, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.071503, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.15461, "worst_return": -0.119047, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.157763, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.175292, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.342082, "worst_return": -0.165131, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.191226, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.027693, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.37296, "worst_return": -0.292668, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.011419, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.027928, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.185487, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.093664, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.057596, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": 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"fair_value": 3.677432, "relative_strength": -2.068312, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.160148, "energy": 34.67526, "activity_lines": [ 5.691, 5.716273, 5.626337, 5.358508 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 5.74, "volume": 2, "typical_volume": 1587.8, "trend": 5.086988, "fair_value": 3.698987, "relative_strength": 0.397253, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.007942, "energy": 38.053012, "activity_lines": [ 5.705333, 5.721273, 5.662164, 5.40341 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.655, "volume": 1801, "typical_volume": 1677.85, "trend": 5.126093, "fair_value": 3.72016, "relative_strength": -2.648819, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.853223, "energy": 35.740702, "activity_lines": [ 5.698333, 5.711273, 5.681713, 5.440056 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.535, "volume": 3, "typical_volume": 1678.0, "trend": 5.161327, "fair_value": 3.739774, "relative_strength": -4.894805, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.720405, "energy": 24.105826, "activity_lines": [ 5.644, 5.676818, 5.6815, 5.466437 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.555, "volume": 6, "typical_volume": 1678.3, "trend": 5.191681, "fair_value": 3.758997, "relative_strength": -7.479666, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 24.499773, "energy": 16.920939, "activity_lines": [ 5.603333, 5.647182, 5.675357, 5.491835 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }