{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1a164209-59d6-4dce-90d4-9a9b0789fa25", "symbol": "EVH", "name": "Evolent Health Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 21.753, "architecture_energy": 25.376, "architecture_maturity": 61.969, "architecture_confidence": 72.338, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.64, "rotation_up": 25.35, "upward_expansion": 59.5, "deceleration": 85.5, "rotation_down": 42.76, "downward_expansion": 23.16 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.151333, 4.634545, 4.432857, 4.080409 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 3.95, "trend_reference": 3.719, "distance_from_trend": 0.062113, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 15.567308, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.746263, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -29.216673, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.385965, "excess_performance": 0.26034, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.062113, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.056534, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.746263, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.017378, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.292167, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.113272, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.385965, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.84439, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 21698354, "relative_activity": 1.51304, "balance": 0.84439, "dry_up": 1.409107, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.218888, "annualized_volatility": 0.9962, "from_high_reference": -0.608135, "from_low_reference": 0.885442 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.719, "fair_value_reference": 15.567308, "structural_low": 2.095, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.022265, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.02769, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.117915, "worst_return": -0.506282, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.179864, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.174068, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.252716, "worst_return": -0.536585, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.136532, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.171838, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": -0.016526, "worst_return": -0.629342, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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[ 5.503333, 5.006364, 4.285619, 3.94157 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 5.81, "volume": 10087258, "typical_volume": 13130092.6, "trend": 3.749667, "fair_value": 16.056859, "relative_strength": -0.029608, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.11728, "energy": 87.585124, "activity_lines": [ 5.680667, 5.214545, 4.481095, 4.078409 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.22, "volume": 22947180, "typical_volume": 13384604.3, "trend": 3.753, "fair_value": 15.894103, "relative_strength": -25.108952, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.468548, "energy": 52.475753, "activity_lines": [ 5.260667, 5.104, 4.512952, 4.108753 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.09, "volume": 26098646, "typical_volume": 13949229.2, "trend": 3.726333, "fair_value": 15.723013, "relative_strength": -44.051019, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 16.083324, "energy": 13.658309, "activity_lines": [ 4.482, 4.783273, 4.43219, 4.065978 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.95, "volume": 21698354, "typical_volume": 14340899.0, "trend": 3.719, "fair_value": 15.567308, "relative_strength": -29.216673, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 21.753388, "energy": 25.375916, "activity_lines": [ 4.151333, 4.634545, 4.432857, 4.080409 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }