{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1a1aca83-eb3f-42f9-8ed2-dcbcc3ca9845", "symbol": "SFL", "name": "Safello Group AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -46.587, "architecture_energy": 27.04, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 90.132, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.29, "rotation_up": 25.09, "upward_expansion": 14.34, "deceleration": 44.65, "rotation_down": 40.23, "downward_expansion": 66.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.876667, 2.864909, 2.996762, 3.148667 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 2.8, "trend_reference": 3.305333, "distance_from_trend": -0.152884, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.686667, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.40256, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -40.395567, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.148936, "excess_performance": -0.210431, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.152884, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.155078, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.40256, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.099359, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.403956, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.01051, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.148936, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.990034, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 75654, "relative_activity": 1.768927, "balance": 0.990034, "dry_up": 1.104977, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.143956, "annualized_volatility": 0.540191, "from_high_reference": -0.640103, "from_low_reference": 0.111111 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.305333, "fair_value_reference": 4.686667, "structural_low": 2.52, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.058598, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.05232, "regime_survival": 0.785714, "best_return": 0.290441, "worst_return": -0.272, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.016129, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.01014, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.336493, "worst_return": -0.334764, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.021333, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.032624, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.175355, "worst_return": -0.345494, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.084291, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.05303, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.052459, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.032143, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.181818, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.185185, 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"typical_volume": 38960.15, "trend": 3.422, "fair_value": 4.697756, "relative_strength": -41.443544, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.451539, "energy": 42.499812, "activity_lines": [ 2.793333, 2.855091, 3.098238, 3.235355 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.19, "volume": 39637, "typical_volume": 38683.5, "trend": 3.388333, "fair_value": 4.694167, "relative_strength": -32.986073, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.540989, "energy": 29.57429, "activity_lines": [ 2.921333, 2.901091, 3.084762, 3.220387 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.82, "volume": 50055, "typical_volume": 39664.75, "trend": 3.343333, "fair_value": 4.689872, "relative_strength": -40.168987, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.160008, "energy": 29.0195, "activity_lines": [ 2.9, 2.883091, 3.039381, 3.18372 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.8, "volume": 75654, "typical_volume": 42768.3, "trend": 3.305333, "fair_value": 4.686667, "relative_strength": -40.395567, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.586823, "energy": 27.04023, "activity_lines": [ 2.876667, 2.864909, 2.996762, 3.148667 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }