{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1a1db56b-4da2-45ac-85b9-1e420278a9ff", "symbol": "237370", "name": "KODEX Growth Dividend Balanced", "exchange": "KSC", "country": "KR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^KS11", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -9.717, "architecture_energy": 9.695, "architecture_maturity": 25.389, "architecture_confidence": 36.863, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 66.64, "rotation_up": 23.45, "upward_expansion": 22.74, "deceleration": 67.39, "rotation_down": 36.93, "downward_expansion": 27.41 }, "activity_lines": [ 15715.395052, 15714.994336, 15829.551818, 15838.914766 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 15810.0, "trend_reference": 15771.042676, "distance_from_trend": 0.00247, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 13396.062619, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.180198, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.761503, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.038883, "excess_performance": -0.190945, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.00247, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.029575, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.180198, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.072172, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.167615, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.241357, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.038883, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.322477, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 243666, "relative_activity": 0.406535, "balance": 0.322477, "dry_up": 0.693518, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.024578, "annualized_volatility": 0.108725, "from_high_reference": -0.039583, "from_low_reference": 0.145023 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15771.042676, "fair_value_reference": 13396.062619, "structural_low": 15237.283675, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.016257, "positive_rate": 0.846154, "directional_follow_through": 0.846154, "median_excess_return": -0.023016, "regime_survival": 0.230769, "best_return": 0.036807, "worst_return": -0.01097, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.016921, "positive_rate": 0.777778, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": -0.028712, "regime_survival": 0.222222, "best_return": 0.099029, "worst_return": -0.012602, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.046394, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.042169, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.127906, "worst_return": 0.002919, 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15810.0, "volume": 243666, "typical_volume": 599373.25, "trend": 15771.042676, "fair_value": 13396.062619, "relative_strength": -16.761503, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -9.716577, "energy": 9.695087, "activity_lines": [ 15715.395052, 15714.994336, 15829.551818, 15838.914766 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }