{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1a229193-2d96-4cb5-bad9-175f057c3ee0", "symbol": "GDL", "name": "Goodfellow Inc.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 88.755, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.947, "architecture_energy": 61.501, "architecture_maturity": 27.242, "architecture_confidence": 89.758, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 5.16, "rotation_up": 16.28, "upward_expansion": 12.01, "deceleration": 41.59, "rotation_down": 66.25, "downward_expansion": 87.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.284667, 11.346, 11.456952, 11.577323 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 11.25, "trend_reference": 11.725147, "distance_from_trend": -0.040524, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 12.182231, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.076524, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.849755, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.060688, "excess_performance": -0.181109, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.040524, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00992, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.076524, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.042483, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.138498, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.032691, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.060688, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.822785, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6000, "relative_activity": 0.369458, "balance": 0.822785, "dry_up": 0.788177, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.020513, "annualized_volatility": 0.09414, "from_high_reference": -0.122247, "from_low_reference": 0.041055 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.725147, "fair_value_reference": 12.182231, "structural_low": 11.13, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.007867, "positive_rate": 0.588235, "directional_follow_through": 0.411765, "median_excess_return": 0.00539, "regime_survival": 0.647059, "best_return": 0.180232, "worst_return": -0.076229, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.069226, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.020562, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.256784, "worst_return": -0.095541, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.167064, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.028298, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.419776, "worst_return": -0.099297, "sufficient": true }, { 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11.614667, 11.637455, 11.752416, 11.798614 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 11.36, "volume": 500, "typical_volume": 19430.0, "trend": 11.813442, "fair_value": 12.209832, "relative_strength": -12.692713, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.47898, "energy": 51.088668, "activity_lines": [ 11.531333, 11.582545, 11.704711, 11.768777 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 11.4, "volume": 4700, "typical_volume": 18185.0, "trend": 11.80179, "fair_value": 12.214932, "relative_strength": -11.873217, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.06443, "energy": 59.550522, "activity_lines": [ 11.48, 11.542727, 11.664317, 11.742103 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 11.5, "volume": 2000, "typical_volume": 17335.0, "trend": 11.778319, "fair_value": 12.213908, "relative_strength": -11.251271, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.874975, "energy": 59.413778, "activity_lines": [ 11.470667, 11.525818, 11.636194, 11.722633 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 11.45, "volume": 6700, "typical_volume": 16770.0, "trend": 11.772945, "fair_value": 12.210512, "relative_strength": -11.309636, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.886573, "energy": 59.61007, "activity_lines": [ 11.450667, 11.504545, 11.605015, 11.701451 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 11.25, "volume": 17200, "typical_volume": 16990.0, "trend": 11.761892, "fair_value": 12.203838, "relative_strength": -12.354751, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.664256, "energy": 65.109259, "activity_lines": [ 11.380667, 11.449636, 11.558286, 11.667712 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.29, "volume": 15900, "typical_volume": 17120.0, "trend": 11.743938, "fair_value": 12.195813, "relative_strength": -11.856793, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.814793, "energy": 56.98569, "activity_lines": [ 11.346667, 11.411273, 11.520286, 11.637268 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.3, "volume": 12100, "typical_volume": 17345.0, "trend": 11.735211, "fair_value": 12.189127, "relative_strength": -11.004543, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.31012, "energy": 60.866415, "activity_lines": [ 11.320667, 11.381091, 11.488619, 11.608626 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.25, "volume": 6000, "typical_volume": 16240.0, "trend": 11.725147, "fair_value": 12.182231, "relative_strength": -13.849755, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.946793, "energy": 61.500809, "activity_lines": [ 11.284667, 11.346, 11.456952, 11.577323 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }