{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1a2ea6dc-b74a-472d-b7f5-80c7d6c94cac", "symbol": "ECO", "name": "Ubs Etf - Bloomberg Barclays Msci Global Liquid Corporates Sustainable Ucits ETF", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 62.585, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 19.425, "architecture_energy": 23.914, "architecture_maturity": 57.1, "architecture_confidence": 70.093, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.36, "rotation_up": 19.51, "upward_expansion": 54.72, "deceleration": 91.16, "rotation_down": 42.32, "downward_expansion": 23.06 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.520133, 11.569491, 11.539581, 11.512508 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 11.496, "trend_reference": 11.481667, "distance_from_trend": 0.001248, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 11.218064, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.024776, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.996935, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.009129, "excess_performance": -0.161763, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.001248, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004878, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.024776, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -9.8e-05, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.139969, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.021928, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.009129, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.349945, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2619, "relative_activity": 0.145495, "balance": 0.349945, "dry_up": 0.643381, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.007976, "annualized_volatility": 0.036823, "from_high_reference": -0.020784, "from_low_reference": 0.029923 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.481667, "fair_value_reference": 11.218064, "structural_low": 11.336, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.001644, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": 0.001449, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.017746, "worst_return": -0.045892, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.011704, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.005811, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.029797, "worst_return": -0.048705, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.007532, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.108709, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.036197, "worst_return": -0.045887, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.006831, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.105066, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.050274, "worst_return": -0.088256, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-03-29", "end": "2024-04-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.014281, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-05-03", "end": "2024-06-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0221, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-06-21", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.028464, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.007006, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.031277, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.008069, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.011244, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.010795, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.010135, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-03-06", 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"activity_lines": [ 11.642133, 11.6116, 11.537724, 11.507497 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.552, "volume": 14108, "typical_volume": 17707.5, "trend": 11.4782, "fair_value": 11.203051, "relative_strength": -11.191684, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.328753, "energy": 44.177581, "activity_lines": [ 11.609333, 11.608509, 11.543067, 11.512723 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.46, "volume": 14050, "typical_volume": 18000.55, "trend": 11.481133, "fair_value": 11.210474, "relative_strength": -12.104735, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 20.339948, "energy": 19.581849, "activity_lines": [ 11.549467, 11.585891, 11.539524, 11.511548 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.496, "volume": 2619, "typical_volume": 18000.6, "trend": 11.481667, "fair_value": 11.218064, "relative_strength": -13.996935, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 19.424622, "energy": 23.913611, "activity_lines": [ 11.520133, 11.569491, 11.539581, 11.512508 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }