{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1a2f040e-b98b-428e-bd04-f6ac98f40d3b", "symbol": "P1AY34", "name": "Paychex, Inc.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 74.549, "architecture_energy": 91.086, "architecture_maturity": 22.481, "architecture_confidence": 67.257, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.93, "rotation_up": 85.89, "upward_expansion": 100.0, "deceleration": 39.0, "rotation_down": 8.0, "downward_expansion": 22.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 281.57077, 272.064687, 256.634755, 251.221513 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 282.420013, "trend_reference": 249.704839, "distance_from_trend": 0.131015, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 323.404376, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.126728, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -5.372838, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.107715, "excess_performance": 0.164764, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.131015, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.042999, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.126728, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.178131, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.053728, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.365124, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.107715, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.0, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 5.0, "dry_up": 0.0, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.01639, "annualized_volatility": 0.331304, "from_high_reference": -0.293306, "from_low_reference": 0.295673 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 249.704839, "fair_value_reference": 323.404376, "structural_low": 217.971756, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.007632, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.022339, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.12474, "worst_return": -0.084585, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.031816, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.014032, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.01222, "worst_return": -0.053856, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.062502, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.045393, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.02766, "worst_return": -0.318915, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.225406, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.359259, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.011217, "worst_return": -0.462029, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2023-11-10", "end": "2023-12-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.073691, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-12-15", "end": "2023-12-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-01-05", "end": "2024-01-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.015603, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-01-19", "end": "2024-02-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.053095, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-02-16", "end": "2024-03-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.006191, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-03-22", "end": "2024-04-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.007905, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-04-12", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.377026, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.034727, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.033015, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.013382, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.349339, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.12474, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 287.781219, "volume": 16, "typical_volume": 4.6, "trend": 266.316026, "fair_value": 259.959505, "relative_strength": 1.81559, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 63.354756, "energy": 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"modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 59.606035, "energy": 85.432957, "activity_lines": [ 258.993394, 250.089839, 241.512717, 243.514645 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 280.296906, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 2.5, "trend": 251.859325, "fair_value": 323.413405, "relative_strength": -10.781147, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 68.74361, "energy": 89.00638, "activity_lines": [ 268.004828, 256.876038, 245.468155, 245.299951 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 280.296906, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1.7, "trend": 251.093983, "fair_value": 323.405509, "relative_strength": -9.655095, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 64.732025, "energy": 87.651558, "activity_lines": [ 274.457135, 262.659295, 249.165765, 247.134634 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 282.420013, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1.55, "trend": 250.399411, "fair_value": 323.411222, "relative_strength": -9.598922, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 59.032291, "energy": 85.660136, "activity_lines": [ 279.058018, 267.863718, 252.971098, 249.155668 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 282.420013, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1.5, "trend": 249.704839, "fair_value": 323.404376, "relative_strength": -5.372838, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.548549, "energy": 91.08639, "activity_lines": [ 281.57077, 272.064687, 256.634755, 251.221513 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }