{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1a306e6d-f496-429c-88eb-ec8a51f7ad58", "symbol": "DJSC", "name": "iShares EURO STOXX Small UCITS ETF", "exchange": "AMS", "country": "NL", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AEX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 87.817, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 81.969, "architecture_energy": 79.155, "architecture_maturity": 31.429, "architecture_confidence": 82.86, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.74, "rotation_up": 68.43, "upward_expansion": 90.7, "deceleration": 45.45, "rotation_down": 16.81, "downward_expansion": 17.37 }, "activity_lines": [ 53.628667, 53.171291, 52.528927, 51.817994 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 54.66, "trend_reference": 51.186577, "distance_from_trend": 0.067858, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 44.107772, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.239237, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.535645, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.062496, "excess_performance": -0.054166, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.067858, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.032106, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.239237, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.05895, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.015356, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.012991, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.062496, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.414357, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4522, "relative_activity": 0.381752, "balance": 4.414357, "dry_up": 0.376391, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.020768, "annualized_volatility": 0.173869, "from_high_reference": -0.004372, "from_low_reference": 0.217833 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 51.186577, "fair_value_reference": 44.107772, "structural_low": 44.882999, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": 0.014143, "positive_rate": 0.62069, "directional_follow_through": 0.62069, "median_excess_return": -0.004935, "regime_survival": 0.724138, "best_return": 0.056926, "worst_return": -0.073815, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.007251, "positive_rate": 0.7, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": -0.024191, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.121905, "worst_return": -0.042769, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.036256, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.025393, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.118866, "worst_return": 0.026101, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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52.662734, 52.425391, 51.43072, 51.03354 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 52.130001, "volume": 5523, "typical_volume": 14014.15, "trend": 50.632529, "fair_value": 43.772299, "relative_strength": -4.126225, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.512462, "energy": 40.098558, "activity_lines": [ 52.521979, 52.428173, 51.563876, 51.138998 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 52.41, "volume": 2133, "typical_volume": 13248.6, "trend": 50.760799, "fair_value": 43.849188, "relative_strength": -4.194499, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.60194, "energy": 32.505051, "activity_lines": [ 52.467334, 52.469028, 51.72175, 51.253673 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 53.060001, "volume": 3490, "typical_volume": 12773.9, "trend": 50.907137, "fair_value": 43.925759, "relative_strength": -2.732713, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.970725, "energy": 43.686045, "activity_lines": [ 52.639334, 52.598416, 51.940235, 51.402009 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 53.75, "volume": 7689, "typical_volume": 12270.8, "trend": 51.055091, "fair_value": 44.012792, "relative_strength": -2.211076, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.28824, "energy": 52.787305, "activity_lines": [ 53.045334, 52.816949, 52.205251, 51.585419 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 54.66, "volume": 4522, "typical_volume": 11845.4, "trend": 51.186577, "fair_value": 44.107772, "relative_strength": -1.535645, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.968883, "energy": 79.155144, "activity_lines": [ 53.628667, 53.171291, 52.528927, 51.817994 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }