{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1a375802-d4b9-4fe5-83c8-80fad8e52608", "symbol": "EVS", "name": "Amova-StraitsTrading MSCI China Electric Vehicles and Future Mobility Index ETF", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 62.658, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -67.266, "architecture_energy": 84.144, "architecture_maturity": 11.198, "architecture_confidence": 84.992, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.71, "rotation_up": 9.23, "upward_expansion": 20.83, "deceleration": 37.4, "rotation_down": 78.51, "downward_expansion": 96.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.5812, 0.597273, 0.628805, 0.640445 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.59, "trend_reference": 0.648333, "distance_from_trend": -0.089974, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.503551, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.171678, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.059855, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.056, "excess_performance": -0.210835, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.089974, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.001489, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.171678, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.254502, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.210599, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.315163, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.056, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.869544, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 87040, "relative_activity": 0.815494, "balance": 0.869544, "dry_up": 0.977715, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.047066, "annualized_volatility": 0.243246, "from_high_reference": -0.183956, "from_low_reference": 0.189516 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.648333, "fair_value_reference": 0.503551, "structural_low": 0.551, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.023499, "positive_rate": 0.230769, "directional_follow_through": 0.769231, "median_excess_return": -0.03871, "regime_survival": 0.846154, "best_return": 0.475783, "worst_return": -0.15814, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.075718, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.111494, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.30226, "worst_return": -0.161538, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.163121, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.153701, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.446328, "worst_return": -0.186538, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.138277, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.004494, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.048565, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.051653, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.060543, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": 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"modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -34.557646, "energy": 54.571631, "activity_lines": [ 0.641467, 0.654109, 0.66759, 0.663723 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.593, "volume": 126263, "typical_volume": 124725.8, "trend": 0.654233, "fair_value": 0.503795, "relative_strength": -17.987052, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -51.712251, "energy": 69.661378, "activity_lines": [ 0.624133, 0.640618, 0.66041, 0.659751 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.561, "volume": 78941, "typical_volume": 118090.2, "trend": 0.652767, "fair_value": 0.503891, "relative_strength": -22.810743, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -65.972876, "energy": 85.698656, "activity_lines": [ 0.5996, 0.623364, 0.6504, 0.653735 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.579, "volume": 176679, "typical_volume": 124323.05, "trend": 0.6514, "fair_value": 0.503756, "relative_strength": -21.277155, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.73472, "energy": 89.706472, "activity_lines": [ 0.586933, 0.612091, 0.642529, 0.648976 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.579, "volume": 74757, "typical_volume": 111372.85, "trend": 0.649833, "fair_value": 0.5035, "relative_strength": -21.696454, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.677326, "energy": 88.416748, "activity_lines": [ 0.580667, 0.602855, 0.634914, 0.644305 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.59, "volume": 87040, "typical_volume": 106732.8, "trend": 0.648333, "fair_value": 0.503551, "relative_strength": -21.059855, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.266095, "energy": 84.143617, "activity_lines": [ 0.5812, 0.597273, 0.628805, 0.640445 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }