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Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 50.578, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 52.685, "architecture_energy": 55.336, "architecture_maturity": 90.959, "architecture_confidence": 56.718, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.77, "rotation_up": 46.43, "upward_expansion": 72.5, "deceleration": 65.49, "rotation_down": 27.73, "downward_expansion": 22.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 364.653329, 365.557804, 349.755181, 327.774979 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 354.799988, "trend_reference": 302.088008, "distance_from_trend": 0.174492, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 388.057937, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.085704, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.980517, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.543632, "excess_performance": 0.369385, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.174492, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.099976, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.085704, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.112922, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.009805, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.010639, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.543632, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.88189, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 367, "relative_activity": 3.840921, "balance": 0.88189, "dry_up": 2.197802, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.047443, "annualized_volatility": 0.307547, "from_high_reference": -0.113, "from_low_reference": 0.67575 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 302.088008, "fair_value_reference": 388.057937, "structural_low": 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"energy": 90.528375, "activity_lines": [ 368.178666, 356.480363, 329.280824, 309.555832 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 376.0, "volume": 178, "typical_volume": 88.1, "trend": 294.248804, "fair_value": 389.392199, "relative_strength": 10.686349, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.432109, "energy": 81.523597, "activity_lines": [ 372.320001, 361.779392, 336.225091, 315.031865 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 369.0, "volume": 124, "typical_volume": 84.3, "trend": 297.410406, "fair_value": 389.005574, "relative_strength": 6.889174, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.685108, "energy": 67.596983, "activity_lines": [ 372.426668, 364.70229, 341.876344, 319.854523 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 365.399994, "volume": 171, "typical_volume": 86.9, "trend": 300.022511, "fair_value": 388.580801, "relative_strength": 5.411449, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.60052, "energy": 64.627504, "activity_lines": [ 369.986666, 366.388268, 346.60612, 324.240948 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 354.799988, "volume": 367, "typical_volume": 95.55, "trend": 302.088008, "fair_value": 388.057937, "relative_strength": -0.980517, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.685294, "energy": 55.335991, "activity_lines": [ 364.653329, 365.557804, 349.755181, 327.774979 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }