{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "1a3fab53-26ed-414c-9bf8-95b009901f78",
    "symbol": "TIPS",
    "name": "State Street SPDR Bloomberg U.S. TIPS UCITS ETF",
    "exchange": "LSE",
    "country": "GB",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^FTSE",
    "stage": 4,
    "stage_name": "Declining",
    "phase": "4a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown",
    "transition": "stage_4_declining",
    "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact",
    "confidence": 84.795,
    "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction",
    "architecture_gate": "down",
    "architecture_direction": -67.249,
    "architecture_energy": 83.029,
    "architecture_maturity": 10.624,
    "architecture_confidence": 86.314,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 23.66,
        "rotation_up": 9.0,
        "upward_expansion": 20.35,
        "deceleration": 38.0,
        "rotation_down": 78.69,
        "downward_expansion": 96.02
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        27.704543,
        27.950399,
        28.350188,
        28.509887
      ],
      "activity_state": "Wide",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": -0.833333
    },
    "latest_close": 27.725,
    "trend_reference": 28.665375,
    "distance_from_trend": -0.032805,
    "trend_direction": "Weakening",
    "fair_value": 27.182022,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.019976,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -10.93119,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": -0.036155,
    "excess_performance": -0.08739,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.032805,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.005145,
        "read": "Falling"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.019976,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.061764,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.109312,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.068571,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.036155,
        "read": "Negative"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.098264,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 19600,
      "relative_activity": 0.756906,
      "balance": 0.098264,
      "dry_up": 1.465704,
      "accumulation_observations": 0,
      "distribution_observations": 2
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.013243,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.070335,
      "from_high_reference": -0.059851,
      "from_low_reference": 0.023818
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 28.665375,
      "fair_value_reference": 27.182022,
      "structural_low": 27.08,
      "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired."
    },
    "outcomes": [
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        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 15,
        "median_return": 0.001235,
        "positive_rate": 0.533333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.466667,
        "median_excess_return": 0.00599,
        "regime_survival": 0.733333,
        "best_return": 0.033868,
        "worst_return": -0.042855,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 6,
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        "positive_rate": 0.333333,
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        "worst_return": -0.068832,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 3,
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        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
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        "worst_return": -0.05405,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 2,
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        "worst_return": -0.087161,
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        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
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        "regime": "rotation_up",
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        "typical_volume": 70793.75,
        "trend": 28.776591,
        "fair_value": 26.875349,
        "relative_strength": -6.136699,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "up",
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        "energy": 28.655756,
        "activity_lines": [
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
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        "typical_volume": 66640.65,
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        "relative_strength": -5.564741,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
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        "activity_lines": [
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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        "typical_volume": 64540.3,
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        "fair_value": 26.919614,
        "relative_strength": -4.074045,
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        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
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        "typical_volume": 64596.6,
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        "fair_value": 26.941781,
        "relative_strength": -4.305812,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "direction": 52.285606,
        "energy": 44.453594,
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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        "typical_volume": 77421.85,
        "trend": 28.79899,
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        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "energy": 20.896334,
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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        "typical_volume": 77141.4,
        "trend": 28.813633,
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        "relative_strength": -4.970644,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
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        "direction": 54.3574,
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
        "close": 28.945,
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        "trend": 28.82162,
        "fair_value": 27.01301,
        "relative_strength": -4.994337,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
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        "direction": 32.958947,
        "energy": 13.924091,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
        "close": 28.940001,
        "volume": 807,
        "typical_volume": 74861.7,
        "trend": 28.831237,
        "fair_value": 27.036345,
        "relative_strength": -5.729487,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 31.581396,
        "energy": 14.232824,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
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        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "trend": 28.84742,
        "fair_value": 27.083723,
        "relative_strength": -5.269454,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 45.175623,
        "energy": 19.118998,
        "activity_lines": [
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          28.913446
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 27.797232,
        "volume": 66,
        "typical_volume": 72070.0,
        "trend": 28.818454,
        "fair_value": 27.101681,
        "relative_strength": -10.412179,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Structural failure",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -51.127904,
        "energy": 54.899725,
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 27.739521,
        "volume": 9929,
        "typical_volume": 71785.9,
        "trend": 28.790995,
        "fair_value": 27.117014,
        "relative_strength": -8.758976,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Structural failure",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -86.764918,
        "energy": 87.514136,
        "activity_lines": [
          28.251769,
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 27.816469,
        "volume": 7314,
        "typical_volume": 71991.9,
        "trend": 28.763814,
        "fair_value": 27.132479,
        "relative_strength": -9.097653,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -79.110462,
        "energy": 91.778148,
        "activity_lines": [
          28.028142,
          28.388241,
          28.637931,
          28.71321
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 27.691431,
        "volume": 12836,
        "typical_volume": 71345.7,
        "trend": 28.730669,
        "fair_value": 27.148172,
        "relative_strength": -10.355038,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -76.984674,
        "energy": 91.683279,
        "activity_lines": [
          27.837737,
          28.222806,
          28.537052,
          28.644024
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 27.6241,
        "volume": 112067,
        "typical_volume": 75380.5,
        "trend": 28.697565,
        "fair_value": 27.16449,
        "relative_strength": -11.318612,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -73.921812,
        "energy": 90.435085,
        "activity_lines": [
          27.70746,
          28.066649,
          28.436063,
          28.572633
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 27.725,
        "volume": 19600,
        "typical_volume": 25894.9,
        "trend": 28.665375,
        "fair_value": 27.182022,
        "relative_strength": -10.93119,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -67.249497,
        "energy": 83.029367,
        "activity_lines": [
          27.704543,
          27.950399,
          28.350188,
          28.509887
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}