{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1a40a1c1-3766-43b6-b6fa-325f3e8402f8", "symbol": "3217", "name": "Argosy Research Inc.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -33.071, "architecture_energy": 58.013, "architecture_maturity": 13.095, "architecture_confidence": 80.96, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.69, "rotation_up": 14.7, "upward_expansion": 27.17, "deceleration": 49.28, "rotation_down": 71.0, "downward_expansion": 56.84 }, "activity_lines": [ 142.5, 149.724863, 158.072974, 157.750999 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 138.5, "trend_reference": 156.264508, "distance_from_trend": -0.113682, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 143.60104, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.035522, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -38.137306, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.042535, "excess_performance": -0.483907, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.113682, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002275, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.035522, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.284878, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.381373, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.135476, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.042535, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.663604, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4970828, "relative_activity": 0.774843, "balance": 0.663604, "dry_up": 0.533709, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.106054, "annualized_volatility": 0.38836, "from_high_reference": -0.306741, "from_low_reference": 0.018382 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 156.264508, "fair_value_reference": 143.60104, "structural_low": 136.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.012759, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.062479, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.166667, "worst_return": -0.118943, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.052828, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.149064, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.242623, "worst_return": -0.332987, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.053144, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.140621, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.532289, "worst_return": -0.334893, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.003367, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.051613, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.023952, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.021472, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.041534, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.059322, "active": false }, { "regime": 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147.5, "volume": 3728873, "typical_volume": 6439751.35, "trend": 157.281079, "fair_value": 142.842437, "relative_strength": -32.807946, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 7.616387, "energy": 10.276814, "activity_lines": [ 160.051394, 164.865813, 164.684366, 161.209234 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 152.5, "volume": 1921369, "typical_volume": 6311984.5, "trend": 157.244239, "fair_value": 143.042259, "relative_strength": -31.389274, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -16.274719, "energy": 19.422387, "activity_lines": [ 156.791739, 161.751744, 163.86551, 160.900778 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 141.5, "volume": 3073960, "typical_volume": 6260237.65, "trend": 156.950675, "fair_value": 143.226533, "relative_strength": -34.660971, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -30.100922, "energy": 38.458068, "activity_lines": [ 150.378867, 157.01758, 161.977373, 159.88502 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 142.0, "volume": 3729391, "typical_volume": 6282280.15, "trend": 156.62666, "fair_value": 143.405767, "relative_strength": -35.195443, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -30.113644, "energy": 52.016037, "activity_lines": [ 146.133333, 153.348311, 160.172062, 158.920461 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 138.5, "volume": 4970828, "typical_volume": 6415275.05, "trend": 156.264508, "fair_value": 143.60104, "relative_strength": -38.137306, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -33.070746, "energy": 58.012551, "activity_lines": [ 142.5, 149.724863, 158.072974, 157.750999 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }