{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1a4448c4-b712-4a2f-aff3-3a82f01448ac", "symbol": "1201", "name": "Takween Advanced Industries", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -58.485, "architecture_energy": 45.343, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 86.775, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.28, "rotation_up": 16.73, "upward_expansion": 5.79, "deceleration": 48.12, "rotation_down": 59.99, "downward_expansion": 79.13 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.716, 4.793636, 4.927476, 5.059161 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 4.81, "trend_reference": 5.298667, "distance_from_trend": -0.092224, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10.06764, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.522232, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -18.847716, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.207578, "excess_performance": -0.175749, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.092224, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.087747, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.522232, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.016527, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.188477, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.039137, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.207578, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.839011, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5478974, "relative_activity": 2.868657, "balance": 0.839011, "dry_up": 2.01392, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.074524, "annualized_volatility": 0.317878, "from_high_reference": -0.41198, "from_low_reference": 0.161836 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.298667, "fair_value_reference": 10.06764, "structural_low": 4.14, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 52, "median_return": -0.026632, "positive_rate": 0.307692, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": -0.025911, "regime_survival": 0.923077, "best_return": 0.206633, "worst_return": -0.151515, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.112781, "positive_rate": 0.125, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": -0.115199, "regime_survival": 0.8125, "best_return": 0.292621, "worst_return": -0.262195, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.213282, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.143783, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.135195, "worst_return": -0.3337, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"volume": 1946472, "typical_volume": 1267642.25, "trend": 5.487333, "fair_value": 10.440516, "relative_strength": -22.360857, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.269278, "energy": 42.537729, "activity_lines": [ 4.95, 4.991818, 5.101143, 5.250237 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 4.65, "volume": 1154571, "typical_volume": 1303702.45, "trend": 5.437, "fair_value": 10.343171, "relative_strength": -23.05705, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.441236, "energy": 58.49756, "activity_lines": [ 4.836, 4.923091, 5.050143, 5.196215 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.27, "volume": 1793948, "typical_volume": 1344419.25, "trend": 5.379, "fair_value": 10.242079, "relative_strength": -29.036667, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -86.237342, "energy": 82.769366, "activity_lines": [ 4.618667, 4.795818, 4.966571, 5.120925 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.95, "volume": 6958404, "typical_volume": 1660380.2, "trend": 5.338333, "fair_value": 10.154522, "relative_strength": -15.355965, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.58645, "energy": 60.907683, "activity_lines": [ 4.69, 4.807455, 4.953048, 5.093247 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.81, "volume": 5478974, "typical_volume": 1909943.7, "trend": 5.298667, "fair_value": 10.06764, "relative_strength": -18.847716, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.48518, "energy": 45.34341, "activity_lines": [ 4.716, 4.793636, 4.927476, 5.059161 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }