{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1a448594-0c19-44ae-ae5c-22b6a1475a48", "symbol": "STU", "name": "Steel & Tube Holdings Limited", "exchange": "NZE", "country": "NZ", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NZ50", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -48.967, "architecture_energy": 44.712, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 92.714, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.74, "rotation_up": 27.89, "upward_expansion": 20.1, "deceleration": 46.99, "rotation_down": 41.12, "downward_expansion": 70.1 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.348, 0.345, 0.35631, 0.386968 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.355, "trend_reference": 0.447167, "distance_from_trend": -0.206113, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.79354, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.552637, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -36.788132, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.466165, "excess_performance": -0.494439, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.206113, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.184746, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.552637, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.010687, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.367881, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.012817, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.466165, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.831187, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 165838, "relative_activity": 0.505903, "balance": 0.831187, "dry_up": 0.72949, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.067172, "annualized_volatility": 0.330292, "from_high_reference": -0.513699, "from_low_reference": 0.092308 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.447167, "fair_value_reference": 0.79354, "structural_low": 0.325, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 33, "median_return": 0.007353, "positive_rate": 0.515152, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": -0.006146, "regime_survival": 0.757576, "best_return": 0.220931, "worst_return": -0.175926, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.047174, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.036183, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.253949, "worst_return": -0.297872, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.102941, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.170977, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.139954, "worst_return": -0.409836, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"activity_lines": [ 0.336, 0.347636, 0.372048, 0.418828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.355, "volume": 315406, "typical_volume": 385277.6, "trend": 0.477667, "fair_value": 0.809001, "relative_strength": -38.851333, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.679263, "energy": 64.760998, "activity_lines": [ 0.341, 0.347273, 0.367429, 0.410323 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.335, "volume": 263161, "typical_volume": 354730.75, "trend": 0.467167, "fair_value": 0.803772, "relative_strength": -41.794987, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.293705, "energy": 64.963004, "activity_lines": [ 0.339667, 0.343909, 0.361786, 0.401118 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.35, "volume": 212120, "typical_volume": 334206.75, "trend": 0.457167, "fair_value": 0.798581, "relative_strength": -37.956834, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.322594, "energy": 55.978586, "activity_lines": [ 0.343, 0.343818, 0.358429, 0.393559 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.355, "volume": 165838, "typical_volume": 327805.85, "trend": 0.447167, "fair_value": 0.79354, "relative_strength": -36.788132, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.967186, "energy": 44.711692, "activity_lines": [ 0.348, 0.345, 0.35631, 0.386968 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }