{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1a45b401-8d56-4c37-9277-1df45bb27e47", "symbol": "688108", "name": "Sino Medical Sciences Technology Inc.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.111, "architecture_energy": 69.576, "architecture_maturity": 22.179, "architecture_confidence": 87.906, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.42, "rotation_up": 10.1, "upward_expansion": 15.5, "deceleration": 37.84, "rotation_down": 68.15, "downward_expansion": 86.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.51, 17.438727, 18.798095, 19.568645 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 17.5, "trend_reference": 20.642667, "distance_from_trend": -0.152241, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 14.484487, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.208189, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.518141, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.280723, "excess_performance": -0.23752, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.152241, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.015156, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.208189, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.3806, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.215181, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.202418, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.280723, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.495693, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 55255484, "relative_activity": 0.975442, "balance": 0.495693, "dry_up": 1.105897, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.137846, "annualized_volatility": 0.472361, "from_high_reference": -0.62766, "from_low_reference": 0.258993 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 20.642667, "fair_value_reference": 14.484487, "structural_low": 14.59, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.006974, "positive_rate": 0.473684, "directional_follow_through": 0.526316, "median_excess_return": -0.030422, "regime_survival": 0.789474, "best_return": 0.139175, "worst_return": -0.201893, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.056858, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.019564, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.510309, "worst_return": -0.204156, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.125536, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.00215, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 1.164948, "worst_return": -0.273438, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.019502, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.021649, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.080122, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Established", "return": 1.643324, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.314534, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.157982, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.235447, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.067811, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.11828, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.097473, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-07-28", "close": 10.34, "volume": 55107193, "typical_volume": 67905748.8, "trend": 8.024667, "fair_value": 10.284487, "relative_strength": 40.162004, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 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"2026-07-10", "close": 19.389999, "volume": 86230682, "typical_volume": 52690959.6, "trend": 21.028333, "fair_value": 14.330128, "relative_strength": -13.50337, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.784428, "energy": 49.858483, "activity_lines": [ 19.386666, 19.809636, 20.38081, 20.794645 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 16.17, "volume": 83478787, "typical_volume": 54766046.75, "trend": 20.971, "fair_value": 14.36609, "relative_strength": -23.73571, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.526792, "energy": 69.519216, "activity_lines": [ 18.262, 19.074727, 19.943381, 20.481204 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.18, "volume": 58198430, "typical_volume": 54899622.6, "trend": 20.873, "fair_value": 14.396282, "relative_strength": -29.476908, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.451126, "energy": 75.115289, "activity_lines": [ 17.084666, 18.263273, 19.440952, 20.107591 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.72, "volume": 53648634, "typical_volume": 55670511.55, "trend": 20.700667, "fair_value": 14.432949, "relative_strength": -27.437742, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.611289, "energy": 76.255129, "activity_lines": [ 16.419333, 17.649454, 19.021286, 19.77514 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.5, "volume": 55255484, "typical_volume": 56646639.15, "trend": 20.642667, "fair_value": 14.484487, "relative_strength": -21.518141, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.111015, "energy": 69.576259, "activity_lines": [ 16.51, 17.438727, 18.798095, 19.568645 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }