{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1a4e1cff-b509-4d4c-962e-8b70d66c517e", "symbol": "CBSH", "name": "Commerce Bancshares Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 65.952, "architecture_energy": 61.635, "architecture_maturity": 26.902, "architecture_confidence": 76.536, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.89, "rotation_up": 66.73, "upward_expansion": 86.58, "deceleration": 59.34, "rotation_down": 18.72, "downward_expansion": 10.91 }, "activity_lines": [ 59.093333, 58.388, 56.064569, 54.540353 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 59.08, "trend_reference": 53.208067, "distance_from_trend": 0.110358, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 52.006961, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.136002, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.066926, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.082301, "excess_performance": -0.105153, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.110358, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.037378, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.136002, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.118525, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.030669, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.176991, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.082301, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.859402, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4288917, "relative_activity": 0.739546, "balance": 1.859402, "dry_up": 1.006331, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.038523, "annualized_volatility": 0.187253, "from_high_reference": -0.030204, "from_low_reference": 0.263918 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 53.208067, "fair_value_reference": 52.006961, "structural_low": 46.743551, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.01366, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.032571, "regime_survival": 0.611111, "best_return": 0.022114, "worst_return": -0.094477, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.040505, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.011985, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.091979, "worst_return": -0.061111, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.061046, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.136629, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.085817, "worst_return": -0.313538, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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-6.079674, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 78.393957, "energy": 90.007752, "activity_lines": [ 57.508, 55.79399, 53.611424, 52.865863 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 59.14, "volume": 6916200, "typical_volume": 6127630.5, "trend": 52.539081, "fair_value": 51.700084, "relative_strength": -0.200076, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 78.494116, "energy": 90.185498, "activity_lines": [ 58.238667, 56.653076, 54.290794, 53.306541 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 59.09, "volume": 5917463, "typical_volume": 6066167.75, "trend": 52.762056, "fair_value": 51.801961, "relative_strength": 1.704985, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.564558, "energy": 85.55517, "activity_lines": [ 58.731333, 57.366388, 54.924029, 53.729181 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 59.27, "volume": 6221856, "typical_volume": 6037302.75, "trend": 53.014778, "fair_value": 51.903373, "relative_strength": 1.806717, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.185682, "energy": 73.774671, "activity_lines": [ 58.993333, 57.959649, 55.531598, 54.149048 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 59.08, "volume": 4288917, "typical_volume": 5799390.3, "trend": 53.208067, "fair_value": 52.006961, "relative_strength": -3.066926, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.952281, "energy": 61.634722, "activity_lines": [ 59.093333, 58.388, 56.064569, 54.540353 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }