{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1a5d2268-e849-4968-89d6-407c6e2dda02", "symbol": "FRAS3", "name": "Frasle Mobility S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.936, "architecture_energy": 37.219, "architecture_maturity": 55.452, "architecture_confidence": 85.901, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.2, "rotation_up": 21.82, "upward_expansion": 4.08, "deceleration": 57.97, "rotation_down": 50.75, "downward_expansion": 77.41 }, "activity_lines": [ 20.691693, 20.758777, 21.146933, 21.474579 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 20.42, "trend_reference": 22.09191, "distance_from_trend": -0.07568, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 20.28171, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.006818, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.736526, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.13621, "excess_performance": -0.079161, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.07568, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.039491, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.006818, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.131636, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.127365, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.072662, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.13621, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.94582, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1790700, "relative_activity": 1.747186, "balance": 0.94582, "dry_up": 1.157644, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.051306, "annualized_volatility": 0.238776, "from_high_reference": -0.197071, "from_low_reference": 0.081665 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 22.09191, "fair_value_reference": 20.28171, "structural_low": 18.878308, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.012695, "positive_rate": 0.611111, "directional_follow_through": 0.388889, "median_excess_return": 0.006925, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.180541, "worst_return": -0.162875, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.077253, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": 0.031119, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.489976, "worst_return": -0.070877, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.036591, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.161272, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.431077, "worst_return": -0.273134, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.121726, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.032135, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.032189, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.013377, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.119561, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 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"direction": -60.905189, "energy": 67.365528, "activity_lines": [ 20.775028, 21.191127, 21.479834, 21.90462 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 20.450001, "volume": 1409900, "typical_volume": 1155980.0, "trend": 22.405911, "fair_value": 20.12613, "relative_strength": -14.960791, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.374459, "energy": 67.930867, "activity_lines": [ 20.569874, 21.003176, 21.353799, 21.775637 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 20.65, "volume": 857800, "typical_volume": 1107910.0, "trend": 22.299244, "fair_value": 20.17983, "relative_strength": -13.69414, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.084456, "energy": 60.593459, "activity_lines": [ 20.569624, 20.883407, 21.265907, 21.662352 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 21.17, "volume": 687500, "typical_volume": 1038750.0, "trend": 22.201244, "fair_value": 20.234602, "relative_strength": -12.794599, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.282445, "energy": 36.871598, "activity_lines": [ 20.762897, 20.884183, 21.242063, 21.589498 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 20.42, "volume": 1790700, "typical_volume": 1024905.0, "trend": 22.09191, "fair_value": 20.28171, "relative_strength": -12.736526, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.936257, "energy": 37.218969, "activity_lines": [ 20.691693, 20.758777, 21.146933, 21.474579 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }