{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1a5d6247-cf02-4fc1-a8e2-2bf16188597a", "symbol": "1241", "name": "Shuanghua Holdings Limited", "exchange": "HKG", "country": "HK", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-21", "benchmark": "^HSI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 12.541, "architecture_energy": 24.062, "architecture_maturity": 81.496, "architecture_confidence": 52.636, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 58.76, "rotation_up": 42.59, "upward_expansion": 26.91, "deceleration": 49.61, "rotation_down": 14.05, "downward_expansion": 46.58 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.143933, 0.135964, 0.134795, 0.143437 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.159, "trend_reference": 0.1559, "distance_from_trend": 0.019885, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.114378, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.390125, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -11.321964, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.171875, "excess_performance": -0.156584, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.019885, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.114037, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.390125, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.16681, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.11322, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.121416, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.171875, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.562242, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 726000, "relative_activity": 0.675098, "balance": 0.562242, "dry_up": 0.360331, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.087567, "annualized_volatility": 0.74527, "from_high_reference": -0.388462, "from_low_reference": 0.472222 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.1559, "fair_value_reference": 0.114378, "structural_low": 0.108, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": -0.013158, "positive_rate": 0.448276, "directional_follow_through": 0.551724, "median_excess_return": 0.001733, "regime_survival": 0.758621, "best_return": 0.298246, "worst_return": -0.290503, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.042882, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.003357, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.339286, "worst_return": -0.295918, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.070175, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.125381, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.293103, "worst_return": -0.240506, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.019231, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.03125, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.730159, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.25, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.176101, "active": 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.365949, "energy": 45.91649, "activity_lines": [ 0.122867, 0.124436, 0.136019, 0.147368 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.134, "volume": 794000, "typical_volume": 1060800.0, "trend": 0.158367, "fair_value": 0.112917, "relative_strength": -25.336303, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.618404, "energy": 34.16258, "activity_lines": [ 0.126467, 0.125891, 0.134557, 0.145742 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.14, "volume": 6000, "typical_volume": 1060900.0, "trend": 0.157533, "fair_value": 0.113449, "relative_strength": -21.419545, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.347244, "energy": 28.657013, "activity_lines": [ 0.131733, 0.128436, 0.1339, 0.144557 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 0.138, "volume": 24000, "typical_volume": 1058500.0, "trend": 0.156833, "fair_value": 0.113853, "relative_strength": -20.51853, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.055508, "energy": 24.410029, "activity_lines": [ 0.134867, 0.130436, 0.133243, 0.143297 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-21", "close": 0.159, "volume": 726000, "typical_volume": 1075400.0, "trend": 0.1559, "fair_value": 0.114378, "relative_strength": -11.321964, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 12.541, "energy": 24.061941, "activity_lines": [ 0.143933, 0.135964, 0.134795, 0.143437 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }