{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1a6a58f4-381f-4854-814e-f062a7e69e94", "symbol": "OWL", "name": "Blue Owl Capital Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 50.165, "architecture_energy": 47.549, "architecture_maturity": 17.352, "architecture_confidence": 65.138, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.68, "rotation_up": 62.69, "upward_expansion": 44.39, "deceleration": 35.33, "rotation_down": 19.3, "downward_expansion": 21.06 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.486667, 9.946, 9.765787, 9.733676 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 11.87, "trend_reference": 10.172204, "distance_from_trend": 0.166905, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 15.178636, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.21798, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -15.989071, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.0094, "excess_performance": -0.135025, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.166905, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.137252, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.21798, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.102372, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.159891, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.215094, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.0094, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.945837, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 144682601, "relative_activity": 1.200666, "balance": 0.945837, "dry_up": 0.826557, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.082501, "annualized_volatility": 0.533368, "from_high_reference": -0.381266, "from_low_reference": 0.528231 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.172204, "fair_value_reference": 15.178636, "structural_low": 7.76715, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.024144, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.015107, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.296089, "worst_return": -0.205882, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.021716, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.039977, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.400317, "worst_return": -0.173426, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.058565, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.086511, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.450384, "worst_return": -0.409713, 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0.062021, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.098847, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.14279, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.098003, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.114524, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.086191, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": 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[ 9.708, 9.524727, 9.52898, 9.63099 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.87, "volume": 144682601, "typical_volume": 120501915.35, "trend": 10.172204, "fair_value": 15.178636, "relative_strength": -15.989071, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 50.164856, "energy": 47.548571, "activity_lines": [ 10.486667, 9.946, 9.765787, 9.733676 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }