{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1a7175d1-1a66-4e5e-a738-3a50648c11b0", "symbol": "UNL", "name": "United States 12 Month Natural Gas Fund", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -76.106, "architecture_energy": 77.854, "architecture_maturity": 72.039, "architecture_confidence": 87.597, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 5.73, "rotation_up": 13.58, "upward_expansion": 17.04, "deceleration": 38.57, "rotation_down": 76.87, "downward_expansion": 95.04 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.00052, 6.131887, 6.282194, 6.466898 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 5.89, "trend_reference": 6.735187, "distance_from_trend": -0.125488, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 8.21154, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.282717, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -27.269738, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.203236, "excess_performance": -0.328861, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.125488, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.071983, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.282717, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.025385, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.272697, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002581, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.203236, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.516534, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 171324, "relative_activity": 0.478021, "balance": 0.516534, "dry_up": 0.551148, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.046521, "annualized_volatility": 0.219507, "from_high_reference": -0.353387, "from_low_reference": 0.015517 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.735187, "fair_value_reference": 8.21154, "structural_low": 5.8, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": -0.001105, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.00606, "regime_survival": 0.852941, "best_return": 0.142362, "worst_return": -0.227074, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.074453, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.15573, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.252555, "worst_return": -0.317389, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.105263, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.211809, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.111399, "worst_return": -0.432486, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.197729, "energy": 59.39839, "activity_lines": [ 6.308333, 6.383909, 6.501548, 6.674439 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 6.015, "volume": 244697, "typical_volume": 432072.4, "trend": 6.840793, "fair_value": 8.314975, "relative_strength": -24.759909, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.461633, "energy": 75.203825, "activity_lines": [ 6.190333, 6.311364, 6.43869, 6.618289 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.14, "volume": 256428, "typical_volume": 404352.9, "trend": 6.794127, "fair_value": 8.282122, "relative_strength": -22.099019, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.038994, "energy": 73.431859, "activity_lines": [ 6.140333, 6.268636, 6.391905, 6.573077 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.0132, "volume": 117683, "typical_volume": 384041.5, "trend": 6.754853, "fair_value": 8.249771, "relative_strength": -23.827009, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.138116, "energy": 76.843103, "activity_lines": [ 6.074733, 6.209036, 6.33971, 6.522695 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.89, "volume": 171324, "typical_volume": 358402.95, "trend": 6.735187, "fair_value": 8.21154, "relative_strength": -27.269738, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.106471, "energy": 77.854143, "activity_lines": [ 6.00052, 6.131887, 6.282194, 6.466898 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }