{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1a78e976-abd1-4df4-8ec7-cf0cb097c05e", "symbol": "DDM", "name": "ProShares Ultra Dow30", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 85.358, "architecture_energy": 73.147, "architecture_maturity": 57.364, "architecture_confidence": 67.747, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.2, "rotation_up": 65.83, "upward_expansion": 85.33, "deceleration": 68.67, "rotation_down": 23.94, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 1155.178678, 1144.672028, 1100.0907, 1077.963772 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 1175.0, "trend_reference": 1058.118064, "distance_from_trend": 0.110462, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1504.466516, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.218992, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -12.698808, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.12198, "excess_performance": 0.176647, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.110462, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.033096, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.218992, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.132663, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.126988, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.281032, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.12198, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 119.157895, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 638, "relative_activity": 3.582257, "balance": 119.157895, "dry_up": 1.649354, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.018997, "annualized_volatility": 0.221381, "from_high_reference": -0.446318, "from_low_reference": 0.246023 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1058.118064, "fair_value_reference": 1504.466516, "structural_low": 943.0, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": 0.017573, "positive_rate": 0.615385, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": 0.013326, "regime_survival": 0.730769, "best_return": 0.108911, "worst_return": -0.509868, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.002309, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.006613, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.238594, "worst_return": -0.471057, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.131977, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.086686, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.298465, "worst_return": -0.4649, 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false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.02673, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.122749, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.068328, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.006289, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": 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"2026-07-10", "close": 1150.0, "volume": 9, "typical_volume": 119.35, "trend": 1044.209247, "fair_value": 1505.84883, "relative_strength": -18.545462, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 86.12508, "energy": 95.132114, "activity_lines": [ 1138.281112, 1106.966845, 1061.727688, 1052.010975 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1130.0, "volume": 10, "typical_volume": 119.85, "trend": 1047.204726, "fair_value": 1505.428915, "relative_strength": -18.98236, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.647398, "energy": 88.987386, "activity_lines": [ 1139.539087, 1117.024883, 1070.052147, 1057.545862 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1130.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 119.85, "trend": 1050.195591, "fair_value": 1504.910035, "relative_strength": -17.505989, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.267633, "energy": 88.387787, "activity_lines": [ 1137.669336, 1124.315968, 1078.006333, 1062.887493 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1163.170044, "volume": 527, "typical_volume": 146.2, "trend": 1054.292124, "fair_value": 1504.607552, "relative_strength": -14.665724, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 86.457752, "energy": 74.541687, "activity_lines": [ 1145.656681, 1135.026052, 1088.749298, 1070.176167 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1175.0, "volume": 638, "typical_volume": 178.1, "trend": 1058.118064, "fair_value": 1504.466516, "relative_strength": -12.698808, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 85.358448, "energy": 73.147102, "activity_lines": [ 1155.178678, 1144.672028, 1100.0907, 1077.963772 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }