{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1a790ff5-4798-4553-8708-a43977256ba2", "symbol": "601390", "name": "China Railway Group Limited", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -45.11, "architecture_energy": 37.89, "architecture_maturity": 94.231, "architecture_confidence": 89.112, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.02, "rotation_up": 27.92, "upward_expansion": 20.34, "deceleration": 47.0, "rotation_down": 32.81, "downward_expansion": 68.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.470027, 4.406827, 4.56948, 4.791971 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 4.48, "trend_reference": 5.064385, "distance_from_trend": -0.115391, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.633663, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.20478, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.243976, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.214035, "excess_performance": -0.170831, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.115391, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.062937, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.20478, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.074455, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.14244, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.010439, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.214035, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.836489, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 559144865, "relative_activity": 0.972866, "balance": 0.836489, "dry_up": 1.082253, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.047674, "annualized_volatility": 0.300313, "from_high_reference": -0.307573, "from_low_reference": 0.094409 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.064385, "fair_value_reference": 5.633663, "structural_low": 4.093535, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": -0.008726, "positive_rate": 0.391304, "directional_follow_through": 0.565217, "median_excess_return": -0.016162, "regime_survival": 0.782609, "best_return": 0.26834, "worst_return": -0.146623, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.056638, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.024454, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.17851, "worst_return": -0.153959, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.002932, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.026324, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.180753, "worst_return": -0.042834, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.588369, "energy": 52.064143, "activity_lines": [ 4.429955, 4.401037, 4.601535, 4.831673 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.48, "volume": 559144865, "typical_volume": 574739620.5, "trend": 5.064385, "fair_value": 5.633663, "relative_strength": -14.243976, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.109965, "energy": 37.889615, "activity_lines": [ 4.470027, 4.406827, 4.56948, 4.791971 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }