{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1a7c6563-c686-422e-b884-e963a37dbc9a", "symbol": "EWV", "name": "PROSHARES ULTRASHORT MSCI JAPAN", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -72.416, "architecture_energy": 42.907, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 84.081, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.75, "rotation_up": 26.96, "upward_expansion": 5.49, "deceleration": 58.92, "rotation_down": 45.16, "downward_expansion": 76.49 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.547473, 17.700974, 18.216398, 18.992392 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 16.3269, "trend_reference": 19.901937, "distance_from_trend": -0.179633, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 34.681027, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.529227, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -35.967695, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.202085, "excess_performance": -0.32771, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.179633, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.107487, "read": "Falling" 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16.28, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 33, "median_return": -0.019443, "positive_rate": 0.424242, "directional_follow_through": 0.575758, "median_excess_return": -0.032528, "regime_survival": 0.878788, "best_return": 0.260538, "worst_return": -0.204203, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.060603, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.128707, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.163723, "worst_return": -0.252977, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.110698, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.247018, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.27956, "worst_return": -0.260641, "sufficient": true 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"date": "2026-07-24", "close": 18.495, "volume": 19291, "typical_volume": 135270.25, "trend": 20.357346, "fair_value": 35.099175, "relative_strength": -26.340103, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.673054, "energy": 30.388859, "activity_lines": [ 18.20564, 18.075199, 18.6943, 19.401302 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 17.8144, "volume": 47402, "typical_volume": 128509.75, "trend": 20.122056, "fair_value": 34.897397, "relative_strength": -28.697525, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.878105, "energy": 29.498967, "activity_lines": [ 18.118953, 18.014545, 18.512487, 19.237241 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.3269, "volume": 25367, "typical_volume": 122832.1, "trend": 19.901937, "fair_value": 34.681027, "relative_strength": -35.967695, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.415868, "energy": 42.906744, "activity_lines": [ 17.547473, 17.700974, 18.216398, 18.992392 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }