{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1a7d904e-23e6-4f75-a94e-7d31929c9927", "symbol": "LCCN", "name": "Amundi MSCI China UCITS ETF", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 4.046, "architecture_energy": 24.869, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 39.152, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.21, "rotation_up": 47.64, "upward_expansion": 28.19, "deceleration": 41.2, "rotation_down": 14.73, "downward_expansion": 50.86 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.031334, 16.665455, 16.672896, 16.808968 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 17.436001, "trend_reference": 17.121467, "distance_from_trend": 0.018371, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 15.718201, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.109287, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.543103, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.028094, "excess_performance": -0.110977, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.018371, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.039365, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.109287, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.014043, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.125431, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.061486, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.028094, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.382914, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9737, "relative_activity": 0.576041, "balance": 0.382914, "dry_up": 0.911538, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.028456, "annualized_volatility": 0.185657, "from_high_reference": -0.278114, "from_low_reference": 0.128106 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.121467, "fair_value_reference": 15.718201, "structural_low": 15.456, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": -0.009311, "positive_rate": 0.464286, "directional_follow_through": 0.535714, "median_excess_return": -0.000536, "regime_survival": 0.892857, "best_return": 0.147807, "worst_return": -0.111342, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.01726, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.026621, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.13964, "worst_return": -0.148287, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.024809, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.008858, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.104494, "worst_return": -0.098921, "sufficient": 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{ "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.061165, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.057781, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.012886, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.064561, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.053462, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": 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"relative_strength": -16.451434, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.409671, "energy": 67.957308, "activity_lines": [ 16.109467, 16.285382, 16.608257, 16.888456 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 16.360001, "volume": 17376, "typical_volume": 22036.0, "trend": 17.256734, "fair_value": 15.66906, "relative_strength": -17.765867, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.421052, "energy": 52.75923, "activity_lines": [ 16.18, 16.260982, 16.565648, 16.826443 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 16.704, "volume": 21412, "typical_volume": 20914.1, "trend": 17.206667, "fair_value": 15.680483, "relative_strength": -15.59167, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.440316, "energy": 29.163089, "activity_lines": [ 16.380934, 16.318764, 16.560848, 16.790783 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 17.224001, "volume": 13107, "typical_volume": 19586.65, "trend": 17.171467, "fair_value": 15.696189, "relative_strength": -12.748672, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -8.332478, "energy": 19.342878, "activity_lines": [ 16.729734, 16.478691, 16.606267, 16.791901 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.436001, "volume": 9737, "typical_volume": 16903.3, "trend": 17.121467, "fair_value": 15.718201, "relative_strength": -12.543103, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 4.046325, "energy": 24.869095, "activity_lines": [ 17.031334, 16.665455, 16.672896, 16.808968 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }