{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1a7fc654-7acb-4e43-b718-f343751cffbe", "symbol": "RDCM", "name": "Radcom Ltd", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -37.27, "architecture_energy": 57.538, "architecture_maturity": 19.671, "architecture_confidence": 83.154, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.76, "rotation_up": 19.94, "upward_expansion": 31.15, "deceleration": 43.73, "rotation_down": 66.17, "downward_expansion": 51.49 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.518, 12.436182, 13.233286, 13.152645 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 10.1, "trend_reference": 12.9635, "distance_from_trend": -0.220889, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 11.444329, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.117467, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -33.085606, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.190056, "excess_performance": -0.37751, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.220889, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.007857, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.117467, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.5665, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.330856, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.348689, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.190056, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.392701, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 884407, "relative_activity": 0.946436, "balance": 0.392701, "dry_up": 0.980409, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.175223, "annualized_volatility": 0.59736, "from_high_reference": -0.396655, "from_low_reference": 0.074468 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.9635, "fair_value_reference": 11.444329, "structural_low": 9.4, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.040114, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.007263, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.154762, "worst_return": -0.040452, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.041477, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.053404, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.167582, "worst_return": -0.130534, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.138168, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.055797, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.300366, "worst_return": -0.073377, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.049031, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.429895, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.111722, "worst_return": -0.209784, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.123153, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.154762, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.010931, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.082129, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.219512, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.051724, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.019747, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.035878, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.042133, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.257576, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": 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"deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 16.026789, "energy": 23.372337, "activity_lines": [ 13.076, 13.805455, 13.629333, 13.311204 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 14.56, "volume": 758120, "typical_volume": 790557.4, "trend": 13.121833, "fair_value": 11.361284, "relative_strength": -5.014813, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.971884, "energy": 18.934074, "activity_lines": [ 13.514667, 13.825636, 13.767476, 13.407387 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 14.44, "volume": 446403, "typical_volume": 796424.1, "trend": 13.150833, "fair_value": 11.387246, "relative_strength": -7.209497, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.851394, "energy": 16.828597, "activity_lines": [ 13.936667, 13.846, 13.882286, 13.49243 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 13.89, "volume": 479231, "typical_volume": 806079.15, "trend": 13.166833, "fair_value": 11.41404, "relative_strength": -6.369907, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.83742, "energy": 19.789625, "activity_lines": [ 14.034, 13.795818, 13.930238, 13.540118 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.03, "volume": 804659, "typical_volume": 836324.25, "trend": 13.148167, "fair_value": 11.435387, "relative_strength": -10.203673, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 21.309603, "energy": 14.601742, "activity_lines": [ 13.772, 13.630182, 13.884381, 13.53129 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.24, "volume": 1496314, "typical_volume": 899490.75, "trend": 13.060833, "fair_value": 11.439489, "relative_strength": -29.249734, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -34.548399, "energy": 38.116224, "activity_lines": [ 12.562, 13.006727, 13.564095, 13.343667 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.1, "volume": 884407, "typical_volume": 934460.1, "trend": 12.9635, "fair_value": 11.444329, "relative_strength": -33.085606, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -37.270317, "energy": 57.537534, "activity_lines": [ 11.518, 12.436182, 13.233286, 13.152645 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }