{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1a81fea7-a5e7-48d5-9df9-9a6c3efa9020", "symbol": "QQQO", "name": "IncomeShares Nasdaq 100 Options ETP", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -67.4, "architecture_energy": 72.196, "architecture_maturity": 53.777, "architecture_confidence": 77.449, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.33, "rotation_up": 12.71, "upward_expansion": 14.85, "deceleration": 44.67, "rotation_down": 75.12, "downward_expansion": 90.52 }, "activity_lines": [ 228.67228, 233.562855, 245.784516, 253.133757 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 232.25, "trend_reference": 264.58394, "distance_from_trend": -0.122207, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 427.54242, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.456779, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -28.665866, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.182642, "excess_performance": -0.233877, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.122207, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.095107, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.456779, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.042798, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.286659, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.043191, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.182642, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.922198, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 18105, "relative_activity": 0.497761, "balance": 1.922198, "dry_up": 0.563181, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.045007, "annualized_volatility": 0.224541, "from_high_reference": -0.503112, "from_low_reference": 0.052025 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 264.58394, "fair_value_reference": 427.54242, "structural_low": 220.7648, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.051261, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.064453, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.03493, "worst_return": -0.067303, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.088238, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.108753, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.088238, "worst_return": -0.088238, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"date": "2026-07-24", "close": 227.4258, "volume": 22245, "typical_volume": 39305.9, "trend": 269.734808, "fair_value": 431.56048, "relative_strength": -30.709842, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.638478, "energy": 90.867458, "activity_lines": [ 230.932773, 239.834105, 251.030972, 258.266524 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 225.0469, "volume": 24649, "typical_volume": 38923.25, "trend": 267.119981, "fair_value": 429.495344, "relative_strength": -31.462599, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.652004, "energy": 86.899904, "activity_lines": [ 227.806447, 235.591861, 247.948334, 255.383433 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 232.25, "volume": 18105, "typical_volume": 36372.85, "trend": 264.58394, "fair_value": 427.54242, "relative_strength": -28.665866, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.399736, "energy": 72.195759, "activity_lines": [ 228.67228, 233.562855, 245.784516, 253.133757 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }