{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1a8227c6-ed0f-47f3-b12e-c7eb91f347e3", "symbol": "WUW", "name": "W\u00fcstenrot & W\u00fcrttembergische AG", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 65.872, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -4.372, "architecture_energy": 2.923, "architecture_maturity": 14.794, "architecture_confidence": 70.852, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 71.38, "rotation_up": 29.73, "upward_expansion": 25.0, "deceleration": 53.63, "rotation_down": 26.66, "downward_expansion": 23.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.612, 14.640727, 14.556743, 14.578953 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 14.58, "trend_reference": 14.618416, "distance_from_trend": -0.002628, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 12.640387, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.153446, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.63885, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.028977, "excess_performance": -0.093617, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.002628, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.02277, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.153446, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.032902, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.046388, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.053893, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.028977, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.333285, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 85321, "relative_activity": 0.594252, "balance": 2.333285, "dry_up": 0.634257, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.037856, "annualized_volatility": 0.234864, "from_high_reference": -0.090391, "from_low_reference": 0.146245 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.618416, "fair_value_reference": 12.640387, "structural_low": 12.872819, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.014876, "positive_rate": 0.647059, "directional_follow_through": 0.647059, "median_excess_return": -0.006809, "regime_survival": 0.470588, "best_return": 0.120805, "worst_return": -0.055066, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.014381, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": 0.039023, "regime_survival": 0.111111, "best_return": 0.189229, "worst_return": -0.051529, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.006637, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.062646, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.193898, 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"relative_strength": 0.431735, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 15.265238, "energy": 15.825596, "activity_lines": [ 14.692, 14.621052, 14.512191, 14.563865 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 14.72, "volume": 105001, "typical_volume": 162436.7, "trend": 14.564289, "fair_value": 12.622173, "relative_strength": 2.039389, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 20.06231, "energy": 20.998526, "activity_lines": [ 14.693333, 14.654909, 14.525041, 14.576362 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 14.64, "volume": 69035, "typical_volume": 154740.1, "trend": 14.590678, "fair_value": 12.627868, "relative_strength": 0.287046, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 8.587037, "energy": 15.729463, "activity_lines": [ 14.689333, 14.662545, 14.535593, 14.581246 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.58, "volume": 104902, "typical_volume": 149713.85, "trend": 14.604866, "fair_value": 12.634183, "relative_strength": -2.176356, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -1.820232, "energy": 3.059835, "activity_lines": [ 14.650667, 14.650909, 14.544403, 14.580558 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.58, "volume": 85321, "typical_volume": 143577.15, "trend": 14.618416, "fair_value": 12.640387, "relative_strength": -4.63885, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -4.372049, "energy": 2.923224, "activity_lines": [ 14.612, 14.640727, 14.556743, 14.578953 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }