{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1a894319-8aca-4f19-b0f5-c764352d4292", "symbol": "EWL", "name": "iShares MSCI Switzerland ETF", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 57.7, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 75.318, "architecture_energy": 51.369, "architecture_maturity": 8.091, "architecture_confidence": 83.398, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.89, "rotation_up": 62.9, "upward_expansion": 82.42, "deceleration": 54.57, "rotation_down": 19.51, "downward_expansion": 6.75 }, "activity_lines": [ 1096.013314, 1091.815154, 1078.944687, 1073.685021 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 1106.939941, "trend_reference": 1070.676969, "distance_from_trend": 0.033869, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 950.237814, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.164908, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 2.110646, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.020315, "excess_performance": 0.074982, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.033869, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006411, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.164908, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.036027, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.021106, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.121265, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.020315, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 63.68617, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 706, "relative_activity": 0.105696, "balance": 63.68617, "dry_up": 2.648794, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.016288, "annualized_volatility": 0.130705, "from_high_reference": -0.006944, "from_low_reference": 0.108048 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1070.676969, "fair_value_reference": 950.237814, "structural_low": 1023.0, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": -0.008914, "positive_rate": 0.37037, "directional_follow_through": 0.37037, "median_excess_return": -0.01671, "regime_survival": 0.592593, "best_return": 0.092937, "worst_return": -0.071636, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.019667, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.363636, "median_excess_return": -0.036477, "regime_survival": 0.363636, "best_return": 0.098109, "worst_return": -0.067528, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.014085, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.057726, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.116005, "worst_return": -0.225674, "sufficient": 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"typical_volume": 3209.7, "trend": 1069.546639, "fair_value": 946.103445, "relative_strength": -0.124827, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.530381, "energy": 73.444071, "activity_lines": [ 1091.900008, 1084.313539, 1071.885541, 1069.721731 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1094.0, "volume": 68937, "typical_volume": 6645.2, "trend": 1069.962305, "fair_value": 948.099679, "relative_strength": 0.841395, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.578582, "energy": 56.137585, "activity_lines": [ 1091.752669, 1087.125815, 1074.882736, 1071.299367 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1106.939941, "volume": 706, "typical_volume": 6679.55, "trend": 1070.676969, "fair_value": 950.237814, "relative_strength": 2.110646, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.317699, "energy": 51.368721, "activity_lines": [ 1096.013314, 1091.815154, 1078.944687, 1073.685021 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }