{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1a8b982f-3da5-4aa4-bd43-7021ed82e512", "symbol": "WCME", "name": "FIRST TRUST WCM DEVELOPING WORLD EQUITY ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 74.553, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 9.586, "architecture_energy": 15.193, "architecture_maturity": 21.394, "architecture_confidence": 81.013, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.58, "rotation_up": 20.18, "upward_expansion": 47.0, "deceleration": 83.56, "rotation_down": 40.03, "downward_expansion": 29.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.60012, 18.829348, 18.908442, 18.672723 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 18.7687, "trend_reference": 18.474672, "distance_from_trend": 0.015915, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 16.113999, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.164745, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.206475, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.005017, "excess_performance": -0.120607, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.015915, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.031021, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.164745, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.080184, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.062065, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.084986, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.005017, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.743321, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 113933, "relative_activity": 1.438633, "balance": 0.743321, "dry_up": 1.093913, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.053652, "annualized_volatility": 0.265488, "from_high_reference": -0.072491, "from_low_reference": 0.181409 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.474672, "fair_value_reference": 16.113999, "structural_low": 16.1745, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.016222, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.024658, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.016222, "worst_return": 0.016222, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.005389, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.054738, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.005389, "worst_return": -0.005389, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { 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18.906642, 18.65812 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 18.3061, "volume": 87077, "typical_volume": 85463.55, "trend": 18.427252, "fair_value": 16.061153, "relative_strength": -4.401888, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 18.446517, "energy": 14.026151, "activity_lines": [ 18.760727, 19.002779, 18.895728, 18.652506 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.4268, "volume": 30862, "typical_volume": 82643.05, "trend": 18.454882, "fair_value": 16.086054, "relative_strength": -4.762032, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 7.599288, "energy": 11.541198, "activity_lines": [ 18.5956, 18.879042, 18.890233, 18.652477 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 18.7687, "volume": 113933, "typical_volume": 79195.3, "trend": 18.474672, "fair_value": 16.113999, "relative_strength": -6.206475, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 9.5856, "energy": 15.193486, "activity_lines": [ 18.60012, 18.829348, 18.908442, 18.672723 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }