{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1a8bd228-ca77-4c3e-bceb-7e78de5a50ef", "symbol": "XNET", "name": "Xunlei Ltd Adr", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -53.936, "architecture_energy": 26.439, "architecture_maturity": 20.564, "architecture_confidence": 86.251, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.6, "rotation_up": 21.39, "upward_expansion": 1.98, "deceleration": 53.06, "rotation_down": 40.3, "downward_expansion": 70.64 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.386, 5.415091, 5.538, 5.661032 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 5.12, "trend_reference": 5.872, "distance_from_trend": -0.128065, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.817272, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.341272, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -33.233413, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.117241, "excess_performance": -0.304695, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.128065, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.096523, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.341272, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.476968, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.332334, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.154117, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.117241, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.605624, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 979503, "relative_activity": 0.718781, "balance": 0.605624, "dry_up": 0.80491, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.148281, "annualized_volatility": 0.678988, "from_high_reference": -0.535811, "from_low_reference": 0.16895 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.872, "fair_value_reference": 3.817272, "structural_low": 4.52, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.015152, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.014115, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.186508, "worst_return": -0.187097, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.056051, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.019851, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.117647, "worst_return": -0.181818, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.288591, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.146669, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.299363, "worst_return": -0.181818, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.042341, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.180097, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.114094, "worst_return": -0.029412, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-07-12", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.210526, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.074257, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.060759, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.859296, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.125, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.142259, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.404396, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.090153, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.208731, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.013817, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.125874, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.245955, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.10325, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.072464, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 1.66, "volume": 514294, "typical_volume": 702375.95, "trend": 1.804667, "fair_value": 2.735316, "relative_strength": -17.698098, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", 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"fair_value": 3.728041, "relative_strength": -25.719333, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.099064, "energy": 22.182025, "activity_lines": [ 5.496, 5.439091, 5.667095, 5.816817 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 5.77, "volume": 818186, "typical_volume": 1427838.05, "trend": 6.075, "fair_value": 3.752272, "relative_strength": -21.9972, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.712811, "energy": 17.797801, "activity_lines": [ 5.624667, 5.481273, 5.664571, 5.794473 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.52, "volume": 864190, "typical_volume": 1414642.75, "trend": 6.018667, "fair_value": 3.774772, "relative_strength": -24.069574, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -29.92983, "energy": 17.418159, "activity_lines": [ 5.634, 5.489273, 5.638, 5.758667 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.34, "volume": 1725618, "typical_volume": 1391468.6, "trend": 5.954667, "fair_value": 3.796759, "relative_strength": -26.916635, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.790601, "energy": 16.383244, "activity_lines": [ 5.546, 5.470909, 5.594524, 5.714882 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.12, "volume": 979503, "typical_volume": 1362728.35, "trend": 5.872, "fair_value": 3.817272, "relative_strength": -33.233413, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.936239, "energy": 26.439258, "activity_lines": [ 5.386, 5.415091, 5.538, 5.661032 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }