{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1a969714-23fb-494d-bb76-006887314aeb", "symbol": "SCHO", "name": "SCHWAB STRATEGIC TR SHORT-TERM US TREASURY ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 95.931, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -22.724, "architecture_energy": 9.979, "architecture_maturity": 28.697, "architecture_confidence": 68.011, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 65.01, "rotation_up": 22.45, "upward_expansion": 18.28, "deceleration": 34.71, "rotation_down": 34.03, "downward_expansion": 56.95 }, "activity_lines": [ 24.022592, 24.020572, 24.024706, 24.033107 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 24.06, "trend_reference": 24.040942, "distance_from_trend": 0.000793, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 22.944644, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.048611, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.562836, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.000182, "excess_performance": -0.125443, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.000793, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001433, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.048611, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.009859, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.105628, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002815, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.000182, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.115406, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 21064203, "relative_activity": 1.272927, "balance": 1.115406, "dry_up": 0.868023, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.002994, "annualized_volatility": 0.015489, "from_high_reference": -0.004316, "from_low_reference": 0.022092 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 24.040942, "fair_value_reference": 22.944644, "structural_low": 23.947119, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.000781, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.014822, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.004083, "worst_return": -0.002488, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.003755, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.031103, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.011746, "worst_return": -0.004236, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.007329, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.070379, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.025745, "worst_return": -0.011087, "sufficient": 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[ 24.016167, 24.018402, 24.028324, 24.036597 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 23.978972, "volume": 11442418, "typical_volume": 16563021.55, "trend": 24.036968, "fair_value": 22.910226, "relative_strength": -7.35852, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.09373, "energy": 38.983432, "activity_lines": [ 24.00178, 24.012056, 24.022882, 24.032875 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 24.018838, "volume": 13163399, "typical_volume": 16390524.0, "trend": 24.038269, "fair_value": 22.927232, "relative_strength": -7.899193, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.269345, "energy": 33.503582, "activity_lines": [ 24.003556, 24.012942, 24.021792, 24.031705 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 24.06, "volume": 21064203, "typical_volume": 16547845.75, "trend": 24.040942, "fair_value": 22.944644, "relative_strength": -10.562836, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -22.723549, "energy": 9.979149, "activity_lines": [ 24.022592, 24.020572, 24.024706, 24.033107 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }