{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1a97905f-014b-48e8-a366-e608f8d6c729", "symbol": "AMA", "name": "Ama Marine Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 66.393, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 3.712, "architecture_energy": 7.054, "architecture_maturity": 11.672, "architecture_confidence": 71.126, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 67.57, "rotation_up": 28.43, "upward_expansion": 24.67, "deceleration": 45.41, "rotation_down": 20.62, "downward_expansion": 46.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.892, 3.876364, 3.873524, 3.887285 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 3.96, "trend_reference": 3.905557, "distance_from_trend": 0.01394, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 3.706104, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.068508, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.43397, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.014389, "excess_performance": -0.177936, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.01394, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002462, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.068508, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000442, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.12434, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.011911, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.014389, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.725578, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1893100, "relative_activity": 2.388905, "balance": 0.725578, "dry_up": 1.722874, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.019037, "annualized_volatility": 0.091774, "from_high_reference": -0.050458, "from_low_reference": 0.066409 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.905557, "fair_value_reference": 3.706104, "structural_low": 3.78, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.010204, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.023986, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.199095, "worst_return": -0.104072, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": -0.037972, "regime_survival": 0.181818, "best_return": 0.289593, "worst_return": -0.162264, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.004173, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.022808, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.394154, "worst_return": -0.215094, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.063787, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.004183, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.228347, "worst_return": -0.228571, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.004902, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.034483, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.045226, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.009709, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.02381, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.028037, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.014423, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.015076, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.039604, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.027778, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": 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"regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.929527, "energy": 22.699775, "activity_lines": [ 3.858667, 3.856364, 3.870286, 3.889612 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.86, "volume": 1675500, "typical_volume": 843300.0, "trend": 3.90578, "fair_value": 3.698777, "relative_strength": -17.063756, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.988564, "energy": 17.104409, "activity_lines": [ 3.86, 3.856364, 3.867619, 3.886687 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.86, "volume": 517500, "typical_volume": 756425.0, "trend": 3.904954, "fair_value": 3.701777, "relative_strength": -15.627267, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.904517, "energy": 17.974142, "activity_lines": [ 3.86, 3.857091, 3.865524, 3.883734 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.96, "volume": 1893100, "typical_volume": 792455.0, "trend": 3.905557, "fair_value": 3.706104, "relative_strength": -12.43397, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 3.711809, "energy": 7.054274, "activity_lines": [ 3.892, 3.876364, 3.873524, 3.887285 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }