{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1a97aac6-b6d6-47aa-85ed-e6334f2c12d8", "symbol": "AQMS", "name": "Aqua Metals Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.456, "architecture_energy": 52.777, "architecture_maturity": 81.189, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.95, "rotation_up": 24.3, "upward_expansion": 8.47, "deceleration": 51.04, "rotation_down": 57.42, "downward_expansion": 84.14 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.696, 2.767636, 3.232524, 3.554667 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 2.86, "trend_reference": 4.011167, "distance_from_trend": -0.28699, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 52.149679, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.945158, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -50.470052, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.400419, "excess_performance": -0.587873, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.28699, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.224396, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.945158, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.012714, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.504701, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.190154, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.400419, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.271625, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 226224, "relative_activity": 0.603537, "balance": 0.271625, "dry_up": 0.463549, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.193279, "annualized_volatility": 0.72591, "from_high_reference": -0.927411, "from_low_reference": 0.162318 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.011167, "fair_value_reference": 52.149679, "structural_low": 2.4606, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 49, "median_return": -0.123414, "positive_rate": 0.265306, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.133083, "regime_survival": 0.918367, "best_return": 0.679205, "worst_return": -0.440171, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.301136, "positive_rate": 0.266667, "directional_follow_through": 0.733333, "median_excess_return": -0.238438, "regime_survival": 0.866667, "best_return": 1.083654, "worst_return": -0.683171, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.499412, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.620308, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.37108, "worst_return": -0.705983, "sufficient": true 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"Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.526221, "energy": 76.456502, "activity_lines": [ 2.764667, 3.011909, 3.532833, 3.842183 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.71, "volume": 91097, "typical_volume": 371682.8, "trend": 4.192833, "fair_value": 55.243333, "relative_strength": -51.10026, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.244119, "energy": 66.075755, "activity_lines": [ 2.711, 2.906545, 3.423762, 3.741914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.53, "volume": 169001, "typical_volume": 371574.6, "trend": 4.0995, "fair_value": 53.631346, "relative_strength": -54.229922, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.819083, "energy": 65.467999, "activity_lines": [ 2.636, 2.794091, 3.307357, 3.634634 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.86, "volume": 226224, "typical_volume": 374830.55, "trend": 4.011167, "fair_value": 52.149679, "relative_strength": -50.470052, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.455936, "energy": 52.776622, "activity_lines": [ 2.696, 2.767636, 3.232524, 3.554667 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }