{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1a9cf5e8-2a57-4ed9-8c34-622b791a158b", "symbol": "600071", "name": "Phenix Optical Company Limited", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.438, "architecture_energy": 79.536, "architecture_maturity": 58.301, "architecture_confidence": 92.98, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.36, "rotation_up": 13.48, "upward_expansion": 19.16, "deceleration": 38.48, "rotation_down": 70.56, "downward_expansion": 92.49 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.067333, 15.644, 16.87219, 17.772452 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 15.58, "trend_reference": 18.971333, "distance_from_trend": -0.178761, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 20.029295, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.222139, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -22.86863, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.274336, "excess_performance": -0.231132, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.178761, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.081647, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.222139, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.22683, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.228686, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.098934, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.274336, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.51615, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 12221773, "relative_activity": 0.764008, "balance": 0.51615, "dry_up": 0.767777, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.083737, "annualized_volatility": 0.334246, "from_high_reference": -0.392829, "from_low_reference": 0.116846 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.971333, "fair_value_reference": 20.029295, "structural_low": 13.95, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": 0.012804, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.01921, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.223464, "worst_return": -0.351449, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.022982, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.006753, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 3.089162, "worst_return": -0.19088, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.146816, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.089054, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 2.046118, "worst_return": -0.297231, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"fair_value": 20.178718, "relative_strength": -24.444355, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.423686, "energy": 68.398526, "activity_lines": [ 16.710667, 17.226546, 18.263333, 18.958946 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 14.7, "volume": 12682453, "typical_volume": 16671465.9, "trend": 19.582, "fair_value": 20.138397, "relative_strength": -25.631868, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -85.497145, "energy": 82.656702, "activity_lines": [ 16.010667, 16.659091, 17.853095, 18.630667 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 14.19, "volume": 11798998, "typical_volume": 16160867.7, "trend": 19.361667, "fair_value": 20.095064, "relative_strength": -28.519845, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -84.482526, "energy": 91.177861, "activity_lines": [ 15.260667, 16.102364, 17.427048, 18.282796 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.04, "volume": 12425022, "typical_volume": 16119634.7, "trend": 19.168667, "fair_value": 20.057179, "relative_strength": -24.005559, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.994931, "energy": 84.762592, "activity_lines": [ 14.997333, 15.788727, 17.111667, 18.003978 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.58, "volume": 12221773, "typical_volume": 15996917.95, "trend": 18.971333, "fair_value": 20.029295, "relative_strength": -22.86863, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.437886, "energy": 79.535684, "activity_lines": [ 15.067333, 15.644, 16.87219, 17.772452 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }