{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "1aa1f328-0892-4fc7-8602-6a6f0ca514fb",
    "symbol": "SIHY",
    "name": "HARBOR ARES SYSTEMATIC HIGH YIELD ETF",
    "exchange": "NYSEARCA",
    "country": "US",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "SPY",
    "stage": 3,
    "stage_name": "Distribution",
    "phase": "3a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning",
    "transition": "stage_3_churning",
    "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 43.957,
    "architecture_energy": 20.73,
    "architecture_maturity": 39.56,
    "architecture_confidence": 78.632,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 42.29,
        "rotation_up": 27.5,
        "upward_expansion": 54.48,
        "deceleration": 90.25,
        "rotation_down": 28.47,
        "downward_expansion": 20.48
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        45.166923,
        45.212117,
        45.132169,
        44.979435
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.0
    },
    "latest_close": 45.4,
    "trend_reference": 44.85211,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.012215,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 41.177518,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.102543,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -9.122107,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": 0.010621,
    "excess_performance": -0.115003,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.012215,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.006955,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.102543,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.00869,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.091221,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.000176,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.010621,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 2.306768,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 40445,
      "relative_activity": 0.344001,
      "balance": 2.306768,
      "dry_up": 0.497653,
      "accumulation_observations": 2,
      "distribution_observations": 0
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.008884,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.043295,
      "from_high_reference": -0.003827,
      "from_low_reference": 0.055279
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 44.85211,
      "fair_value_reference": 41.177518,
      "structural_low": 43.614219,
      "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": 0.015418,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.022886,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.017621,
        "worst_return": 0.013215,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": 0.006076,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": 0.007466,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.042119,
        "worst_return": -0.029968,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": 0.05208,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.061507,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.069156,
        "worst_return": 0.035004,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 1,
        "median_return": 0.083777,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.013358,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.083777,
        "worst_return": 0.083777,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "end": "2023-04-14",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.027957,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2023-04-21",
        "end": "2024-04-19",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": 0.093625,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2024-05-17",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.015731,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "tenure": "Extended",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-01-10",
        "end": "2025-01-24",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.012733,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.007416,
        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
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        "end": "2025-05-02",
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        "return": 0.030524,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "end": "2025-06-13",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.020695,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "active": false
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      {
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      {
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        "active": true
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-24",
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        "trend": 44.367864,
        "fair_value": 40.187177,
        "relative_strength": -6.437139,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
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        "stage": 3,
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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      },
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        "date": "2026-05-15",
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        "typical_volume": 161544.9,
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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        "typical_volume": 155442.8,
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        "fair_value": 40.519518,
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        "energy": 34.141802,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "fair_value": 40.585247,
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        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
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        "energy": 33.225013,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
        "close": 45.315603,
        "volume": 149592,
        "typical_volume": 152073.45,
        "trend": 44.630002,
        "fair_value": 40.652391,
        "relative_strength": -7.159083,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 67.273456,
        "energy": 56.140877,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "trend": 44.718587,
        "fair_value": 40.790876,
        "relative_strength": -5.064017,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 66.81425,
        "energy": 68.923316,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 45.249999,
        "volume": 29995,
        "typical_volume": 143232.3,
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        "fair_value": 40.859474,
        "relative_strength": -7.159575,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 62.4489,
        "energy": 66.97354,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 45.284803,
        "volume": 402676,
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        "trend": 44.77847,
        "fair_value": 40.924776,
        "relative_strength": -8.093851,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 60.167772,
        "energy": 59.709874,
        "activity_lines": [
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          45.014529,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 45.223946,
        "volume": 63130,
        "typical_volume": 140284.3,
        "trend": 44.804663,
        "fair_value": 40.988396,
        "relative_strength": -6.558143,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 55.500198,
        "energy": 38.253326,
        "activity_lines": [
          45.288246,
          45.260939,
          45.057407,
          44.923824
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 44.882073,
        "volume": 83524,
        "typical_volume": 131835.05,
        "trend": 44.81556,
        "fair_value": 41.049756,
        "relative_strength": -6.514014,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 33.533735,
        "energy": 19.611807,
        "activity_lines": [
          45.137704,
          45.207187,
          45.064939,
          44.928818
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 45.031232,
        "volume": 46942,
        "typical_volume": 123046.15,
        "trend": 44.831103,
        "fair_value": 41.112741,
        "relative_strength": -6.960038,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 31.377409,
        "energy": 18.242259,
        "activity_lines": [
          45.078393,
          45.177577,
          45.083969,
          44.942732
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 45.4,
        "volume": 40445,
        "typical_volume": 117572.3,
        "trend": 44.85211,
        "fair_value": 41.177518,
        "relative_strength": -9.122107,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 43.956885,
        "energy": 20.730475,
        "activity_lines": [
          45.166923,
          45.212117,
          45.132169,
          44.979435
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}