{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1aa6928d-a0e0-4c33-988f-ace76a4b5c89", "symbol": "AHLT", "name": "AMERICAN BEACON SELECT FDS AMERICAN BEACON AHL TREND ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 69.506, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 32.533, "architecture_energy": 17.95, "architecture_maturity": 12.821, "architecture_confidence": 55.035, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.23, "rotation_up": 44.09, "upward_expansion": 66.1, "deceleration": 55.59, "rotation_down": 20.83, "downward_expansion": 11.77 }, "activity_lines": [ 28.976533, 28.885473, 28.905744, 28.838158 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 28.9856, "trend_reference": 28.74635, "distance_from_trend": 0.008323, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 24.387377, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.188549, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -3.930275, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.011615, "excess_performance": -0.11401, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.008323, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.03755, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.188549, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.024181, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.039303, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.070649, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.011615, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.058882, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 59014, "relative_activity": 0.26117, "balance": 0.058882, "dry_up": 0.800523, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.023678, "annualized_volatility": 0.095799, "from_high_reference": -0.050586, "from_low_reference": 0.341047 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 28.74635, "fair_value_reference": 24.387377, "structural_low": 27.7401, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.001848, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.00527, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.049186, "worst_return": -0.076282, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.025752, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.026758, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.113387, "worst_return": -0.061882, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.125025, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.037367, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.279857, "worst_return": -0.029808, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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32.727344, "energy": 16.783631, "activity_lines": [ 28.9322, 28.8656, 28.886429, 28.81988 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 28.9856, "volume": 59014, "typical_volume": 225959.7, "trend": 28.74635, "fair_value": 24.387377, "relative_strength": -3.930275, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.533451, "energy": 17.950364, "activity_lines": [ 28.976533, 28.885473, 28.905744, 28.838158 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }