{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1aa9760b-296c-4d36-9e10-1e91d274ee18", "symbol": "CAPM", "name": "CAPITAL GROUP MULTI SEC INCOME", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 63.007, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -58.317, "architecture_energy": 58.961, "architecture_maturity": 4.268, "architecture_confidence": 83.35, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.12, "rotation_up": 10.49, "upward_expansion": 12.74, "deceleration": 37.8, "rotation_down": 68.38, "downward_expansion": 88.41 }, "activity_lines": [ 24.316992, 24.374619, 24.436326, 24.452252 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 24.4, "trend_reference": 24.482041, "distance_from_trend": -0.003351, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 23.902678, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.020806, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.366012, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.007025, "excess_performance": -0.127447, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.003351, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.000318, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.020806, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.011116, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.11366, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.011963, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.007025, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.740103, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 28300, "relative_activity": 0.510508, "balance": 1.740103, "dry_up": 0.984035, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.00737, "annualized_volatility": 0.037567, "from_high_reference": -0.032043, "from_low_reference": 0.017435 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 24.482041, "fair_value_reference": 23.902678, "structural_low": 24.085825, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.012826, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.006808, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-10-25", "close": 22.956312, "volume": 29800, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-11-01", "close": 22.901211, "volume": 118300, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": 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"energy": 31.567659, "activity_lines": [ 24.436317, 24.476844, 24.48654, 24.493819 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 24.203001, "volume": 70000, "typical_volume": 58590.0, "trend": 24.494159, "fair_value": 23.89366, "relative_strength": -10.454139, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Neutral compression", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.189917, "energy": 60.742123, "activity_lines": [ 24.35056, 24.425289, 24.461294, 24.474521 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 24.235001, "volume": 74200, "typical_volume": 58885.0, "trend": 24.486003, "fair_value": 23.89733, "relative_strength": -9.523825, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.012175, "energy": 68.244665, "activity_lines": [ 24.298556, 24.383107, 24.440769, 24.457801 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 24.4, "volume": 28300, "typical_volume": 55435.0, "trend": 24.482041, "fair_value": 23.902678, "relative_strength": -11.366012, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.316824, "energy": 58.960739, "activity_lines": [ 24.316992, 24.374619, 24.436326, 24.452252 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }