{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1aab4da6-8862-44a3-9286-7630a20794e2", "symbol": "ALNLF", "name": "Neolife SA", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 62.645, "architecture_energy": 28.974, "architecture_maturity": 40.101, "architecture_confidence": 73.316, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.68, "rotation_up": 38.0, "upward_expansion": 64.17, "deceleration": 72.07, "rotation_down": 24.89, "downward_expansion": 9.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.061413, 0.061091, 0.058792, 0.056968 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 0.071, "trend_reference": 0.05548, "distance_from_trend": 0.27974, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.065979, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.076092, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 14.494982, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.25, "excess_performance": 0.196689, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.27974, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.050625, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.076092, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.454472, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.14495, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.469269, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.25, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.631486, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1866270, "relative_activity": 3.5093, "balance": 4.631486, "dry_up": 1.16098, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.146046, "annualized_volatility": 1.073079, "from_high_reference": -0.228261, "from_low_reference": 1.204969 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.05548, "fair_value_reference": 0.065979, "structural_low": 0.0322, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.075049, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.084139, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": -0.006452, "worst_return": -0.143646, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.272099, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.259401, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.272099, "worst_return": -0.272099, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.530939, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.419811, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.530939, "worst_return": -0.530939, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.928177, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.839501, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.928177, "worst_return": -0.928177, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-01-26", "end": "2024-02-16", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.20442, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-02-23", "end": "2024-04-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.289875, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-04-19", "end": "2024-05-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.086207, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-06-07", "end": "2024-06-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.19359, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-07-05", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.012346, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.017488, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.071975, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.041322, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.053512, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.167763, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.212, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.242857, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.05, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.281588, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.0651, "volume": 919829, "typical_volume": 6850541.85, "trend": 0.073457, "fair_value": 0.218604, "relative_strength": -9.569523, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -25.062375, "energy": 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0.0554, "volume": 96948, "typical_volume": 441342.1, "trend": 0.05472, "fair_value": 0.066211, "relative_strength": -8.539269, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 27.547807, "energy": 24.078856, "activity_lines": [ 0.057053, 0.061233, 0.056731, 0.055679 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.056, "volume": 262429, "typical_volume": 437908.1, "trend": 0.054893, "fair_value": 0.066083, "relative_strength": -7.133905, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.504362, "energy": 22.519597, "activity_lines": [ 0.056453, 0.060484, 0.056899, 0.055762 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.0576, "volume": 244021, "typical_volume": 446597.9, "trend": 0.055007, "fair_value": 0.065973, "relative_strength": -5.254023, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.776982, "energy": 19.059327, "activity_lines": [ 0.056653, 0.059735, 0.057216, 0.055936 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.071, "volume": 1866270, "typical_volume": 531806.85, "trend": 0.05548, "fair_value": 0.065979, "relative_strength": 14.494982, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.644517, "energy": 28.974232, "activity_lines": [ 0.061413, 0.061091, 0.058792, 0.056968 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }