{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1ab29c0c-2446-4b7d-be2e-fa708b04907f", "symbol": "BRI", "name": "Brioschi Sviluppo Immobiliare S.p.A.", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 81.433, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.29, "architecture_energy": 39.73, "architecture_maturity": 17.684, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.26, "rotation_up": 21.58, "upward_expansion": 5.22, "deceleration": 51.17, "rotation_down": 48.83, "downward_expansion": 76.22 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.064773, 0.065149, 0.067044, 0.068412 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.064, "trend_reference": 0.0694, "distance_from_trend": -0.07781, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.060809, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.052476, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.352945, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.088319, "excess_performance": -0.259211, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.07781, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004245, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.052476, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.14319, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.183529, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.171853, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.088319, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.428948, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 988924, "relative_activity": 0.676052, "balance": 0.428948, "dry_up": 0.503126, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.059375, "annualized_volatility": 0.281629, "from_high_reference": -0.205955, "from_low_reference": 0.19403 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.0694, "fair_value_reference": 0.060809, "structural_low": 0.0622, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": 0.002849, "positive_rate": 0.517241, "directional_follow_through": 0.413793, "median_excess_return": -0.01028, "regime_survival": 0.724138, "best_return": 0.178862, "worst_return": -0.11244, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.015659, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.039124, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.346939, "worst_return": -0.11746, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.065626, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.121361, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.135889, "worst_return": -0.122222, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.006536, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.054711, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.067251, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.222571, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.068783, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.09322, 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"energy": 48.946992, "activity_lines": [ 0.065533, 0.066535, 0.068862, 0.069556 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.0676, "volume": 567067, "typical_volume": 1694205.25, "trend": 0.069473, "fair_value": 0.060945, "relative_strength": -11.318014, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.993812, "energy": 47.014469, "activity_lines": [ 0.0662, 0.066495, 0.068602, 0.069441 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.0632, "volume": 430805, "typical_volume": 1593717.8, "trend": 0.069413, "fair_value": 0.060888, "relative_strength": -16.782632, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.027564, "energy": 42.188477, "activity_lines": [ 0.065347, 0.065753, 0.067958, 0.069036 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.0652, "volume": 957082, "typical_volume": 1479410.3, "trend": 0.06946, "fair_value": 0.060845, "relative_strength": -14.560899, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.714558, "energy": 36.467206, "activity_lines": [ 0.06536, 0.065516, 0.067545, 0.068764 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.064, "volume": 988924, "typical_volume": 1462792.2, "trend": 0.0694, "fair_value": 0.060809, "relative_strength": -18.352945, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.289662, "energy": 39.730445, "activity_lines": [ 0.064773, 0.065149, 0.067044, 0.068412 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }