{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1ab5c0c1-3386-472a-8dfd-1f8a427392b1", "symbol": "RUN", "name": "Sunrun Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.458, "architecture_energy": 69.887, "architecture_maturity": 26.0, "architecture_confidence": 85.284, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.44, "rotation_up": 9.76, "upward_expansion": 15.09, "deceleration": 37.63, "rotation_down": 77.01, "downward_expansion": 93.09 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.415333, 11.362455, 12.436452, 12.936591 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 10.2, "trend_reference": 14.092167, "distance_from_trend": -0.276194, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 13.416314, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.239732, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -44.094411, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.488209, "excess_performance": -0.675662, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.276194, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.134086, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.239732, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.294512, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.440944, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.259922, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.488209, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.35857, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 64104162, "relative_activity": 1.394641, "balance": 0.35857, "dry_up": 1.087672, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.216438, "annualized_volatility": 0.821853, "from_high_reference": -0.545455, "from_low_reference": 0.184655 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.092167, "fair_value_reference": 13.416314, "structural_low": 8.6101, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": -0.050054, "positive_rate": 0.387097, "directional_follow_through": 0.612903, "median_excess_return": -0.057973, "regime_survival": 0.741935, "best_return": 0.596401, "worst_return": -0.284187, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.048051, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.070243, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.556861, "worst_return": -0.408624, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.118352, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.158866, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.240336, "worst_return": -0.437637, "sufficient": true }, { 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"regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.034213, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.073123, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.438367, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.439252, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.820305, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": 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"date": "2026-07-17", "close": 11.85, "volume": 42676834, "typical_volume": 47016009.4, "trend": 15.027167, "fair_value": 13.560865, "relative_strength": -33.21471, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.599605, "energy": 45.804848, "activity_lines": [ 12.523333, 13.081091, 13.324429, 13.846817 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.94, "volume": 48076848, "typical_volume": 45555305.4, "trend": 14.676167, "fair_value": 13.507083, "relative_strength": -42.873437, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.685274, "energy": 64.492515, "activity_lines": [ 11.565333, 12.422091, 13.016167, 13.518613 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.81, "volume": 45119951, "typical_volume": 44973789.75, "trend": 14.355167, "fair_value": 13.457596, "relative_strength": -43.776039, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.300328, "energy": 69.697634, "activity_lines": [ 10.802667, 11.813091, 12.70219, 13.204667 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.2, "volume": 64104162, "typical_volume": 45964645.7, "trend": 14.092167, "fair_value": 13.416314, "relative_strength": -44.094411, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.458418, "energy": 69.886927, "activity_lines": [ 10.415333, 11.362455, 12.436452, 12.936591 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }