{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1ab8814c-2c99-43a0-a88f-5bf2619402e1", "symbol": "A50", "name": "Thomson Medical Group Limited", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.92, "architecture_energy": 46.492, "architecture_maturity": 53.469, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.76, "rotation_up": 22.92, "upward_expansion": 6.46, "deceleration": 53.85, "rotation_down": 56.52, "downward_expansion": 82.12 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.053067, 0.053273, 0.054367, 0.055252 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.053, "trend_reference": 0.056667, "distance_from_trend": -0.064706, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.052427, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.010922, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -22.626827, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.116667, "excess_performance": -0.271502, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.064706, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.030234, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.010922, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.084649, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.226268, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.186238, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.116667, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.261028, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1004400, "relative_activity": 0.11231, "balance": 0.261028, "dry_up": 0.301777, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.034833, "annualized_volatility": 0.167496, "from_high_reference": -0.220588, "from_low_reference": 0.177778 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.056667, "fair_value_reference": 0.052427, "structural_low": 0.052, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 45, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.355556, "directional_follow_through": 0.422222, "median_excess_return": -0.022615, "regime_survival": 0.844444, "best_return": 0.06329, "worst_return": -0.088889, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.023705, "positive_rate": 0.3125, "directional_follow_through": 0.5625, "median_excess_return": -0.0511, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.093023, "worst_return": -0.171042, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.056119, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.107175, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.325581, "worst_return": -0.169566, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"activity_lines": [ 0.053333, 0.053927, 0.055133, 0.056071 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.053, "volume": 2305600, "typical_volume": 10086760.0, "trend": 0.057267, "fair_value": 0.052499, "relative_strength": -21.890063, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.618088, "energy": 60.119479, "activity_lines": [ 0.0532, 0.053636, 0.054857, 0.055785 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.053, "volume": 4103400, "typical_volume": 9524645.0, "trend": 0.057, "fair_value": 0.052463, "relative_strength": -22.064462, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.222903, "energy": 47.930379, "activity_lines": [ 0.053133, 0.053436, 0.0546, 0.05551 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.053, "volume": 1004400, "typical_volume": 8943110.0, "trend": 0.056667, "fair_value": 0.052427, "relative_strength": -22.626827, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.920252, "energy": 46.491653, "activity_lines": [ 0.053067, 0.053273, 0.054367, 0.055252 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }