{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1abc955f-845e-473c-adfd-df2aca3b9c90", "symbol": "HIO", "name": "Hawsons Iron Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -76.646, "architecture_energy": 76.584, "architecture_maturity": 68.0, "architecture_confidence": 86.431, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.76, "rotation_up": 12.05, "upward_expansion": 16.67, "deceleration": 37.34, "rotation_down": 69.44, "downward_expansion": 87.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.012, 0.0127, 0.013393, 0.013927 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.011, "trend_reference": 0.014883, "distance_from_trend": -0.260918, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.024817, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.556761, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -44.004096, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.266667, "excess_performance": -0.330372, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.260918, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.212522, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.556761, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.111066, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.440041, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.186392, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.266667, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.72231, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3494456, "relative_activity": 0.847003, "balance": 0.72231, "dry_up": 0.692181, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.129371, "annualized_volatility": 0.432149, "from_high_reference": -0.717949, "from_low_reference": 0.0 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.014883, "fair_value_reference": 0.024817, "structural_low": 0.011, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 36, "median_return": -0.04727, "positive_rate": 0.222222, "directional_follow_through": 0.638889, "median_excess_return": -0.046046, "regime_survival": 0.916667, "best_return": 0.883117, "worst_return": -0.27451, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.133333, "positive_rate": 0.272727, "directional_follow_through": 0.727273, "median_excess_return": -0.154392, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 1.75641, "worst_return": -0.47, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.161725, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.128347, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 6.564103, "worst_return": -0.495238, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.257143, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.330703, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.346154, "worst_return": -0.583333, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2022-09-16", "end": "2022-10-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.186813, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2022-10-21", "end": "2023-10-06", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.504762, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2023-10-13", "end": "2023-11-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.186441, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-11-24", "end": "2024-02-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.235955, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-02-09", "end": "2024-03-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.028571, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-03-08", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.583333, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.192308, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.05, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.136364, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": 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"2026-07-24", "close": 0.013, "volume": 2152170, "typical_volume": 4320146.65, "trend": 0.015683, "fair_value": 0.025157, "relative_strength": -31.147787, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.35867, "energy": 28.809949, "activity_lines": [ 0.013567, 0.013591, 0.014026, 0.014501 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.011, "volume": 3103448, "typical_volume": 4126175.15, "trend": 0.015217, "fair_value": 0.024997, "relative_strength": -42.660383, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.412722, "energy": 50.074646, "activity_lines": [ 0.012733, 0.013118, 0.013698, 0.014199 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.011, "volume": 3494456, "typical_volume": 4125673.45, "trend": 0.014883, "fair_value": 0.024817, "relative_strength": -44.004096, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.646349, "energy": 76.583505, "activity_lines": [ 0.012, 0.0127, 0.013393, 0.013927 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }