{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1abce4dc-40a7-4bd5-b13e-405192ec51ff", "symbol": "002104", "name": "Hengbao Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.462, "architecture_energy": 62.303, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.3, "rotation_up": 29.12, "upward_expansion": 11.94, "deceleration": 60.98, "rotation_down": 52.89, "downward_expansion": 85.27 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.142712, 10.182878, 11.276814, 12.544567 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 11.16, "trend_reference": 14.353343, "distance_from_trend": -0.222481, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 11.02888, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.011889, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -39.312952, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.370913, "excess_performance": -0.378313, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.222481, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.176846, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.011889, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.364203, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.39313, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.049976, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.370913, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.408964, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 251126586, "relative_activity": 2.061242, "balance": 0.408964, "dry_up": 1.662916, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.098305, "annualized_volatility": 0.417287, "from_high_reference": -0.650266, "from_low_reference": 0.256757 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.353343, "fair_value_reference": 11.02888, "structural_low": 8.88, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": -0.040475, "positive_rate": 0.384615, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": -0.012416, "regime_survival": 0.807692, "best_return": 0.253438, "worst_return": -0.221734, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.029963, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.034167, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.559921, "worst_return": -0.312883, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.031211, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.065889, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.361493, "worst_return": -0.353349, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"fair_value": 10.987976, "relative_strength": -51.736347, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.56488, "energy": 88.855487, "activity_lines": [ 10.364654, 11.0742, 12.580254, 13.922787 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 9.058031, "volume": 147742308, "typical_volume": 113147858.4, "trend": 15.410676, "fair_value": 10.992004, "relative_strength": -51.046473, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -86.526556, "energy": 88.585898, "activity_lines": [ 9.850515, 10.56762, 12.111056, 13.492418 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.04, "volume": 194638484, "typical_volume": 114386344.15, "trend": 15.049343, "fair_value": 10.99778, "relative_strength": -50.426225, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.87131, "energy": 80.080054, "activity_lines": [ 9.48383, 10.163615, 11.687245, 13.081407 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.27, "volume": 216882677, "typical_volume": 116192658.7, "trend": 14.701676, "fair_value": 11.01026, "relative_strength": -41.986119, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.662554, "energy": 66.807714, "activity_lines": [ 9.665145, 10.065973, 11.422958, 12.773062 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.16, "volume": 251126586, "typical_volume": 121832660.2, "trend": 14.353343, "fair_value": 11.02888, "relative_strength": -39.312952, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.461671, "energy": 62.303203, "activity_lines": [ 10.142712, 10.182878, 11.276814, 12.544567 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }