{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1abe05a2-1de4-4d9d-b261-7da93a24ef9f", "symbol": "APWC", "name": "Asia Pacific Wire & Cable Corp Ltd", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 67.027, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 1.403, "architecture_energy": 4.862, "architecture_maturity": 19.606, "architecture_confidence": 39.134, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 60.32, "rotation_up": 25.83, "upward_expansion": 22.01, "deceleration": 63.23, "rotation_down": 37.54, "downward_expansion": 31.01 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.528, 1.556545, 1.524777, 1.515376 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 1.57, "trend_reference": 1.532933, "distance_from_trend": 0.02418, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.567412, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.001651, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -18.508133, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.068249, "excess_performance": -0.255703, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.02418, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.047357, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.001651, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.082008, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.185081, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.107086, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.068249, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 23.873389, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 54036, "relative_activity": 0.02136, "balance": 23.873389, "dry_up": 0.033669, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.168917, "annualized_volatility": 0.693892, "from_high_reference": -0.32906, "from_low_reference": 0.241107 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.532933, "fair_value_reference": 1.567412, "structural_low": 1.265, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.025157, "positive_rate": 0.619048, "directional_follow_through": 0.619048, "median_excess_return": 0.007551, "regime_survival": 0.619048, "best_return": 0.184049, "worst_return": -0.175258, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.086855, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.363636, "median_excess_return": -0.081604, "regime_survival": 0.272727, "best_return": 0.352113, "worst_return": -0.277174, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.031195, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.131648, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.324331, "worst_return": -0.483784, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.013071, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.318531, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.283019, "worst_return": -0.651378, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-05-17", "end": "2024-07-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.033898, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.006944, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.025157, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.065089, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.0301, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.012503, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.082, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.050484, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.119586, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.041322, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.076087, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.194118, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.231156, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.075342, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 1.69, "volume": 45694, "typical_volume": 48033.0, "trend": 1.632873, "fair_value": 2.237428, "relative_strength": -3.726653, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", 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"rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 11.552326, "energy": 20.990943, "activity_lines": [ 1.623333, 1.567993, 1.509962, 1.524357 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.46, "volume": 92678, "typical_volume": 2520015.6, "trend": 1.559967, "fair_value": 1.573342, "relative_strength": -22.756079, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -0.501746, "energy": 3.311723, "activity_lines": [ 1.567333, 1.555449, 1.507019, 1.517112 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.58, "volume": 133560, "typical_volume": 2526427.8, "trend": 1.549633, "fair_value": 1.570906, "relative_strength": -14.468733, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -3.125049, "energy": 4.411026, "activity_lines": [ 1.545333, 1.564724, 1.516494, 1.518404 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.47, "volume": 60427, "typical_volume": 2527812.35, "trend": 1.5373, "fair_value": 1.568566, "relative_strength": -20.291348, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -4.979729, "energy": 7.537081, "activity_lines": [ 1.514, 1.551271, 1.515874, 1.513267 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.57, "volume": 54036, "typical_volume": 2529764.55, "trend": 1.532933, "fair_value": 1.567412, "relative_strength": -18.508133, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 1.402733, "energy": 4.862023, "activity_lines": [ 1.528, 1.556545, 1.524777, 1.515376 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }