{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1ac7ad99-cdbe-43df-832c-22c23e1eeeca", "symbol": "COGN3", "name": "Cogna Educa\u00e7\u00e3o S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.538, "architecture_energy": 61.344, "architecture_maturity": 62.62, "architecture_confidence": 95.767, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.82, "rotation_up": 26.78, "upward_expansion": 11.21, "deceleration": 54.26, "rotation_down": 55.43, "downward_expansion": 84.54 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.221333, 2.258727, 2.398812, 2.586479 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 2.22, "trend_reference": 2.908925, "distance_from_trend": -0.236831, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.224508, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.002026, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -27.119158, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.414456, "excess_performance": -0.357407, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.236831, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.098332, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.002026, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.253873, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.271192, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.084137, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.414456, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.557443, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 149712000, "relative_activity": 1.490989, "balance": 0.557443, "dry_up": 1.155834, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.080042, "annualized_volatility": 0.393477, "from_high_reference": -0.530332, "from_low_reference": 0.07767 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.908925, "fair_value_reference": 2.224508, "structural_low": 2.06, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": -0.055555, "positive_rate": 0.37931, "directional_follow_through": 0.586207, "median_excess_return": -0.036374, "regime_survival": 0.896552, "best_return": 0.352941, "worst_return": -0.195918, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.159638, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.074692, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.859551, "worst_return": -0.289796, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.158798, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.165913, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.583732, "worst_return": -0.461225, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-02-16", "end": "2024-03-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.024793, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-03-22", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.379592, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.105883, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.736709, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.027491, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.72521, "energy": 62.690467, "activity_lines": [ 2.344, 2.380182, 2.577233, 2.793328 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.23, "volume": 87998700, "typical_volume": 105236090.0, "trend": 3.021956, "fair_value": 2.236657, "relative_strength": -28.675672, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.932369, "energy": 65.210502, "activity_lines": [ 2.308, 2.341818, 2.527505, 2.74027 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.08, "volume": 105040600, "typical_volume": 103095080.0, "trend": 2.984813, "fair_value": 2.231681, "relative_strength": -33.210266, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -84.168316, "energy": 71.225171, "activity_lines": [ 2.229333, 2.286909, 2.469457, 2.679499 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.28, "volume": 121483200, "typical_volume": 100432380.0, "trend": 2.956991, "fair_value": 2.22815, "relative_strength": -27.993768, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.164872, "energy": 61.77661, "activity_lines": [ 2.234667, 2.276727, 2.435431, 2.634027 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.22, "volume": 149712000, "typical_volume": 100411180.0, "trend": 2.908925, "fair_value": 2.224508, "relative_strength": -27.119158, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.538356, "energy": 61.34358, "activity_lines": [ 2.221333, 2.258727, 2.398812, 2.586479 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }